ICYMI: Mills Leads Nolan in Tight 8th District Race
A new poll from KSTP and Survey USA shows Stewart Mills leading Rick Nolan 45-41 heading into the final two weeks of the campaign. The same poll has Hillary Clinton trailing Donald Trump in the district by a 12-point margin.
To make matters worse for Nolan, 8th District voters rank health care as their top issue after news of the 67% premium hikes hitting Minnesotans in 2017, with 45% supporting repeal of Obamacare, and just 13% favoring Nolan’s preferred solution of a single-payer system. The next highest ranking issue is national security and terrorism, areas where Rick Nolan’s extremist views are far from the mainstream.
NRCC Comment: “Rick Nolan and Hillary Clinton’s extreme views on national security and Obamacare are out of step with the 8th District, and voters recognize it. With just 15 days left in the campaign, Stewart Mills is well-positioned for victory on election night.” – NRCC Spokesman Bob Salera
Mills Leads Nolan in Tight 8th District Race
KSTP
Tom Hauser
September 23, 2016
In a rematch of one of the closest congressional races in the country two years ago, Republican Stewart Mills leads Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan by four points in Minnesota’s 8th District, 45 percent to 41 percent, in our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll. However, a significant number of voters remain undecided, 14 percent, and could swing this election either way.
“You have to keep in mind there’s been wall-to-wall political advertising” in this race, says political scientist Steven Schier of Carleton College. “It’s the most expensive race in the country and still 14 percent are undecided so it’s still anybody’s game.”
The poll was conducted between Oct. 16 and Oct. 19 and includes 595 “likely voters” surveyed by both land lines and cell phones. The margin of sampling error in the poll is +/- 4.1 percent.
Two years ago at about this same stage, our poll showed Mills with an eight-point margin. Three weeks later in lost to Nolan by 1.4%. Schier says that was likely the result of the Democratic Party having a far superior get-out-the-vote operation. “I think the lead in the polls evaporated two years ago because the Democrats had a ground game that far outstripped the Republican ground game in that district,” Schier says.
However, even a superior get-out-the-vote operation might be more difficult in 2016 because the top of the Democratic ticket, Hillary Clinton, appears to be very unpopular in the 8th District. Our poll shows Republican Donald Trump with a 12-point lead over Clinton, 47 percent to 35 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets four percent, Jill Stein of the Green Party is at three percent and 10 percent either prefer someone else or are undecided.
By comparison, Clinton leads Trump by eight points in the 2nd District, 44 percent to 36 percent, and she leads Trump by 13 points in the 3rd District, 48 percent to 35 percent.
“Trump has a healthy lead over Hillary Clinton,” Schier told 5 Eyewitness News after reviewing our 8th District poll. “It’s probably the foreign trade issues. It’s probably his economic nationalism. His desire to bring jobs back to places that have lost jobs.”
Nolan might also be facing resistance from voters over his support of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and his desire to go even further and implement “universal,” or government-run health care. Our KSTP/SurveyUSA poll indicates 45 percent of those surveyed in the 8th District favor repeal of the ACA, 30 percent say there need to be changes to the program and 13 percent say they favor universal health care.
When asked which issue is most important to them when deciding their vote, health care came in as the top choice at 26 percent. Another 25 percent cited terrorism and national security while 13 percent said taxes. Mining came in at six percent, education at 5 percent and foreign trade at four percent.
In terms of demographics, there’s a gender gap in support between the candidates, but not as big as we’ve seen in polls in the 2nd and 3rd Districts. In the 8th, Mills leads among men by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent, while Nolan leads by three points among women, 43 percent to 40 percent. Trump leads Clinton by 21 points among men, 52 percent to 31 percent, but unlike our other polling he even has a narrow edge among women, leading Clinton 41 percent to 39 percent.
Mills leads among all age demographics except voters over age 65. Trump leads among voters of all ages in the 8th District. Mills also leads 57 percent to 36 percent among “likely voters” with at least a high school education. Nolan leads 44 percent to 41 percent among those with college degrees.
Mills and Trump also have significant leads among independents in the 8th District. Mills leads by 10 points, 45 percent to 35 percent, while Trump leads Clinton by 24 points, 49 percent to 25 percent.
Our poll indicates many 8th District voters have shifted from Democrat to independent while the number of Republicans stayed the same from 2014. In the 2016 poll, 29 percent of “likely voters” identified themselves as Republican, the same as 2014. However, the number of Democrats dropped from 34 percent in 2014 to 27 percent in 2016. The number of independents jumped from 31 percent two years ago to 41 percent this year.
Respondents in our poll give Nolan a 42 percent job approval rating with 41 percent disapproving. In our 2014 poll, 38 percent approved of his job performance and 42 percent disapproved.
As of Friday, the 8th District race is the most expensive in the country with $10.58 million dollars spent by groups like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee. About $4.98 million has been spent on negative TV advertising against Mills and about $4.5 million against Nolan.
Nolan and Mills have also already raised more money for their campaigns than they did in 2014. Mills is at $2.96 million and Nolan at $2.25 million. In 2014, Mills raised $2.13 million and Nolan about $2.11 million.