NRCC MEMO: NEW YORK PRIMARY RESULTS
July 14, 2020
| TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS DATE: JULY 14, 2020 SUBJECT: NEW YORK PRIMARY RESULTS |
| New York is critical to Republicans’ efforts to take back the majority and President Trump will serve as a major boost for Republican turnout in every one of these districts. The incumbent Democrats who represent NY-11, NY-18, NY-19 and NY-22 will be forced to defend the liberal records they’ve developed in Washington and will pay a price for failing to deliver on their promises to be moderate problem solvers. Battle-tested incumbents Lee Zeldin and John Katko boast significant cash on hand (COH) advantages and face far-left Democratic candidates who are too liberal for the districts they are running in. In NY-02, an open seat following Rep. Peter King’s retirement, Democrats have opted for a far-left candidate who is endorsed by the Socialist “Squad,” which will prove fatal in a district President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R) vs. Nancy Goroff (D) Lee Zeldin is a battle-tested incumbent who handily won this seat despite a Democrat wave election last cycle and heads into his 2020 reelection campaign with a massive COH advantage. An Army Reservist, Zeldin has always stood with veterans and while Democrats attempt to “Defund the Police,” Zeldin strongly supports police and law enforcement officers. Zeldin continues to deliver real results for Long Island, including securing critical personal protective equipment to protect first responders and front-line workers in Suffolk County, as well as billions of dollars in emergency loans and relief for small businesses in his district. Zeldin is endorsed by President Trump, who won this district by 12 points, and with him at the top of the ticket, Republican turnout will see a massive boost. Liberal college professor Nancy Goroff supports radical left-wing policies like the $93 trillion Green New Deal, socialized health care and giving amnesty to illegal immigrants. She emerges from the Democrat primary with depleted resources, widening the already massive gap in COH. Goroff has made clear she will not work with President Trump and has no chance in November. PVI: R+5 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 54.5% – Clinton: 42.2% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely Republican; Inside Elections – Likely Republican Geography: NY-01 includes a portion of Suffolk County on Long Island. It is entirely in the New York City DMA. NY-02: Andrew Garbarino (R) vs. Jackie Gordon (D) Contrary to the media’s hysteria, Republicans are winning in the suburbs and this district is a prime example, with Republicans flipping the Town of Hempstead to GOP control in last November’s election. Couple that with the fact that President Trump won NY-02 by 9 points and Democrats have no chance of winning this seat. Democrats nominated far-left candidate Jackie Gordon who has openly touted her endorsement from the socialist “Squad” and has stood by dangerous policies like New York’s disastrous bail reform law, which won’t to fly in this blue-collar Long Island district. Suffolk County Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino, a third-generation Long Islander, has worked to protect the Great South Bay for future generations and supported veterans, including restoring $6 million in funding for veterans’ programs. At the same time, Garbarnio has been fighting in Albany against Governor Cuomo and the left’s tax hikes, dangerous bail reform law and giving driver licenses to illegal immigrants. Garbarino will take that fight against the liberal left to Washington to protect Long Islanders from Democrats’ insane socialist agenda to “Defund the Police” and eliminate private health insurance. PVI: R+3 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 53% – Clinton: 44% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean Republican; Inside Elections – Lean Republican Geography: NY-02 is located central Long Island and contains portions of Suffolk and Nassau counties. It is located entirely in the New York City DMA. NY-11: Max Rose (D) vs. Nicole Malliotakis (R) Max Rose has been exposed for failing to deliver on the promises he made to voters last cycle. Despite campaigning as a moderate and representing a district President Trump carried by 10 points, Rose has been a rubber stamp for his party’s socialist agenda, voting with Nancy Pelosi 96% of the time and supporting radical, AOC-endorsed ideas like sanctuary cities. Additionally, Rose penned an op-ed voicing his opposition to impeachment but less than one month later, Rose voted to impeach President Trump. Staten Island voters can’t trust Max Rose. Republican Nicole Malliotakis is a state assemblywoman who is endorsed by President Trump. Unlike Rose, Malliotakis will work with President Trump to bring back lost jobs and stand with the men and women in law enforcement who are fighting to keep New York communities safe. Voters will reject Rose for lying to them in 2018 and Republicans will take this seat in November. PVI: R+3 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 53.6% – Clinton: 43.8% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Toss Up; Inside Elections – Toss Up Geography: NY-11 is located in New York City and covers the entirety of Staten Island and a portion of Brooklyn. It is entirely located in the New York City DMA. NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs. Chele Farley (R) Sean Patrick Maloney campaigned as a moderate but votes like he represents New York City. Maloney votes with Nancy Pelosi 100% of the time and socialist AOC 93% of the time. Rather than deliver results for NY-18, Maloney has spent his time in Washington voting to impeach the president, moonlighting as an unhinged MSNBC contributor and cheering on New York’s disastrous bail reform law that allows criminals to roam the streets. Republican Chele Farley would be a much better fit for the district. Instead of taking marching orders from the fringes of the party, Farley wants to put Hudson Valley families first and deliver real solutions. Farley has promised to work with President Trump to protect and enforce our borders and drain the swamp, which will bode well in this Trump district. PVI: R+1 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 49% – Clinton: 47.1% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely Dem; Inside Elections – Safe Dem Geography: NY-18 is located in the Hudson Valley and includes all of Orange and Putnam counties well as portions of Dutchess & Westchester counties. It is located entirely in the New York City DMA. NY-19: Kyle Van De Water (R) vs. Antonio Delgado (D) Despite campaigning as a moderate in 2018, Antonio Delgado has gone all in on his party’s socialist agenda, voting with Nancy Pelosi 96% of the time and socialist AOC 93% of the time. Delgado has failed to deliver the bipartisan results needed to separate himself from the socialist Democrats. Delgado poses as a moderate but supported the idea of bail reform and has called for a Green New Deal. Republican turnout in 2020 will see a major boost thanks to President Trump, who won this district by 8 points, at the top of the ticket. Republican Kyle Van De Water’s service stands in stark contrast to Delgado, who only serves himself and his party’s radical agenda. Rather than trying to impeach President Trump, Van De Water will work with the president to get the economy going again by supporting his pro-growth policies. And unlike Delgado, who has supported the idea of bail reform, Van De Water has strongly condemned the failed law that has allowed dangerous criminals to terrorize NY communities. NY-19 needs a real representative in Washington, not another blind vote for Nancy Pelosi’s partisan agenda. PVI: R+2 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 50.8% – Clinton: 44% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean Dem; Inside Elections – Safe Dem Geography: NY-19 located in the eastern portion of the state, covering parts of the Hudson Valley and Capital District. The DMA split is 53% New York City, 31.4% Albany, 8.7% Utica and 7.0% Binghamton. NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R) NY-22 is one of House Republicans’ top pick up opportunities in the country, thanks in part to Anthony Brindisi’s complete failure to deliver the bipartisan results he promised voters he would in 2018. Despite claiming he “was not interested in impeachment” while campaigning, Brindisi voted to remove President Trump from office and votes against President Trump 93% of the time. Brindisi’s rigid opposition to President Trump’s policies will be a major issue in a district that voted for Trump by 15 points in 2016. Endorsed by President Trump, Republican Claudia Tenney is a strong candidate who is a proven fighter for upstate New York with a long list of accomplishments from her time in Congress. Tenney worked to advance bipartisan commonsense legislation to bring back jobs, revive the Upstate economy, reduce onerous taxes and regulations, reform the VA and secure the border. With President Trump at the top of the ticket, this 2018 rematch will have a very different outcome this time around and Tenney will get back to delivering results for NY-22 once she is elected this November. PVI: R+6 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 54.8% – Clinton: 39.9% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Toss Up; Inside Elections – Tilt Dem Geography: NY-22 Is located in central New York and contains the cities of Binghamton, Rome and Utica. The DMA split is 40.4% Utica, 36.2% Binghamton and 23.4% Syracuse. NY-24: John Katko (R) vs. Dana Balter (D) John Katko promised NY-24 voters he would deliver bipartisan solutions, which is exactly what he has done, successfully passing legislative items to prioritize national security, end the common core mandate and deliver a bipartisan, long-term highway bill. He was even named the second-most bipartisan member of Congress by the nonpartisan Lugar Center. Katko enters the general with a massive COH advantage against a far-left partisan candidate who is out of touch with Central New York values. Democrat Dana Balter is a far-left radical who supports a socialist agenda that is out of touch with Central New York values. Balter lost last cycle by 5 points and is in even worse shape this time around. Balter emerges from a nasty Democratic primary with limited resources and a toxic record highlighted by her support for bail reform, socialized health care and dangerous sanctuary cities. NY-24 voters want a representative who will put them first and Dana Balter is just too extreme. PVI: D+3 2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 45.3% – Clinton: 48.9% Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely Republican; Inside Elections – Lean Republican Geography: NY-24 is located in Western New York and centered around the greater metro area of Syracuse. The DMA split is 86.9% Syracuse and 13.1% Rochester. |