Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Dems Have Tough Slog Even Without Redistricting

Sabato’s Crystal Ball released their first House ratings for 2022 and it’s not looking good for House Democrats.

Key takeaways:

1. Republicans are favored even without redistricting: “While Republicans stand to gain from this process, they would be favored to win the House even if the district lines were not changing.”
2. More districts lean Republican than Democrat: “Overall, these ratings show 211 districts at least leaning to the Republicans, 203 at least leaning to the Democrats.”
3. Democrats have far more vulnerable incumbents than Republicans: There are a “tiny number of Republicans in the Toss-up column, just two, versus the large number of Democrats there (19).”

NRCC Comment: “Republicans will take back the House and fire Nancy Pelosi in 2022.” – NRCC Spokesman Mike Berg