WSJ: In America’s No. 1 Inflation Hotspot, Democrats Face Restive Voters

March 24, 2022

Arizonans are fed up with Biden’s inflation crisis. A red wave is coming for Democrats like Tom O’Halleran and Greg Stanton in November. 

Read more in the Wall Street Journal.  

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In America’s No. 1 Inflation Hotspot, Democrats Face Restive Voters

John McCormick

Wall Street Journal

March 24, 2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-midterms-democrats-11647629157

This year, with Democrats seeking to defend a narrow Washington majority, will see the first national election since Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter in 1980 where inflation will be a major issue.

Its prominence is clear in the southern half of Scottsdale’s McCormick Ranch neighborhood in the Phoenix metropolitan area, which has seen the biggest inflation surge in the U.S. since President Biden took office. Nationwide, the inflation rate is 7.9%.

Jillian Birnbaum, a 37-year-old nurse and mother of two, says she is frustrated by the rising cost of groceries and diapers in her suburban neighborhood. It is one reason the politically independent voter says she is leaning toward Republicans in this fall’s midterm elections.

“There must be some reason for why it’s happening with this administration and not the last one,” said Ms. Birnbaum, who blames increased federal spending in part for fueling inflation and favors divided government. “We are giving out money like it’s growing on trees.”

Ms. Birnbaum’s McCormick Ranch neighborhood is part of a political battleground that will help determine whether Republicans can gain power in November given the problems facing Democrats, including the highest price increases recorded in four decades.

Interviews with residents and local business owners in the neighborhood on Scottsdale’s eastern edge suggest any patience for higher inflation could reach a breaking point by November if prices keep rising or stay high.

A cheeseburger at the Vig restaurant in the Paseo Village shopping center costs $19, up four dollars over the past two years. Gas at the Shell station is hovering close to $5. Prestige Cleaners says the price of metal clothes hangers it uses is up 42% from a year ago, a cost it passes on to consumers.

The southern half of McCormick Ranch, a development that began its transition from horse breeding grounds to suburban housing five decades ago, is filled with middle-class and upper-middle-class families, and retirees on fixed incomes vulnerable to inflation. It is territory both parties will compete for in this year’s races for an open governor’s seat and a U.S. Senate seat incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly wants to keep.

Debate over inflation’s causes and how to address the situation have become a political wedge issue. Republicans blame Mr. Biden and other Democrats’ injection of trillions of federal dollars into the economy for surging prices and are using the topic as part of their political advertising.

Democrats counter that there is more at work than just government policies, pointing to a collision of strong consumer demand as the pandemic eased, labor shortages, snarled supply chains and an invasion of Ukraine that have combined to trigger higher prices.

Unsettled voters

Today’s round of price increases comes when jobs are plentiful, wages are rising, but below the inflation rate, home values are up and stocks are above where they were when Mr. Biden took office. Rising prices damp all that and are unsettling voters nationally. A Journal poll conducted March 2-7 showed 58% said inflation is causing them financial strain, while 65% said the economy is headed in the wrong direction. Close to half of voters—47%—said they think Republicans can best tame inflation, compared with 30% who listed Democrats.

“I blame the Biden administration,” said Vanessa Weeks, a 54-year-old interior designer who has lived in the neighborhood for more than three years. “There is no other way to look at it.”

Ms. Weeks, an infrequent voter who considers herself an independent, said she’s cooking at home much more than usual because of restaurant-price increases. She has tried to use as little heat as possible this winter because of high natural-gas prices and cut down on her driving and use of ride-shares because of their higher costs. She blames Mr. Biden for rising gas prices and for offering too much Covid assistance, which she thinks has boosted wages and inflation. “People don’t want to work,” she said.

Mr. Biden has at times said inflation will be temporary. He addressed it in a more robust way in his State of the Union address on March 1. “Too many families are struggling to keep up with the bills,” he said. “Inflation is robbing them of the gains they thought otherwise they would be able to feel. I get it. That’s why my top priority is getting prices under control.”

For the Phoenix metropolitan area, the most recently available year-ago monthly comparisons show gasoline costs were up 44%, natural gas jumped 17% and prices for meats, poultry, fish and eggs collectively rose 16%. Housing prices climbed 12%.

Arizona recorded the nation’s second-narrowest margin in the 2020 presidential election after Georgia, and the southern half of McCormick Ranch sits inside a newly mapped congressional district that is also nearly evenly divided. Former President Donald Trump won the precinct that covers the southern half of the ranch by 1.4 percentage points in 2016, before Mr. Biden recorded a 2.7-percentage-point edge in 2020. In 2018, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema collected 50.98% of the precinct’s vote in her first election to the Senate.

Rep. David Schweikert, a six-term Republican who represents the neighborhood in Washington, said a constituent recently confronted him at Costco, upset about the price of a roast she was about to buy. “People don’t feel as safe or stable,” he said. “At the end of the month, they just don’t feel like they have the same amount of money in the bank.”

Read the full article in the Wall Street Journal.