ICYMI: Politico Playbook details Dems’ election fears in OR
This morning, Politico Playbook highlighted Democrats’ election troubles in Oregon and how OR-04, OR-05, and OR-06 became top battleground seats for Republicans.
NRCC Comment: “Oregon voters are rejecting Democrats’ toxic agenda, giving Republicans the opportunity to pick up three new seats in Oregon.” – NRCC Spokeswoman Courtney Parella
In case you missed it…
POLITICO Playbook: The blue state Biden can’t ignore
By EUGENE DANIELS and RYAN LIZZA
October 12, 2022
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/10/12/the-blue-state-biden-cant-ignore-00061378?
BIDEN’S NORTHWEST DETOUR — It’s perhaps the most precious campaign resource in all of American politics — a presidential fundraising visit. So why, with less than four weeks till Election Day, is JOE BIDEN pointing Air Force One at Oregon this weekend?
Oregon hasn’t elected any Republican to statewide office in 20 years, and it’s been 40 years since the state picked a GOP governor. But this year, Democrats are becoming more and more concerned about key races as national and local trends take a toll. In recent weeks, election analysts have moved some of them to toss-ups — including an unusually competitive three-way race for governor.
Oregon political watchers we spoke with last night noted that while their state has a true-blue reputation, its gubernatorial races have stayed relatively close in recent cycles. And this year, there’s a wild card: Independent candidate BETSY JOHNSON, a moderate former Democratic state legislator, is pulling support from Democratic nominee TINA KOTEK, giving Republican nominee CHRISTINE DRAZAN a credible chance of victory.
Both Johnson and Drazan are using crime and homelessness as centerpieces of their campaigns. Drazan, a former state rep, has decried Democratic Covid lockdowns and climate laws that have raised energy prices. Johnson is running as a leader “loyal only to the people of Oregon” who can break through partisan loggerheads in Salem.
Biden’s visit to Portland Friday and Saturday appears primarily aimed at bucking up support for Kotek among Democrats, a sizable chunk of whom appear to be considering a vote for Johnson.
In a Tuesday news conference hosted by the Kotek campaign, advocates made their spoiler fears plainly known. AN DO, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Oregon, said Kotek was in “real danger” of losing, adding that “a vote for [Betsy] Johnson is a vote for an anti-choice Republican.”
National Dems are feeling a bit more optimistic, though they acknowledge the race is way too close for comfort. Democratic Governors Association spokesperson DAVID TURNER told Playbook on Tuesday night that Johnson’s ceiling is getting “lower and lower, day by day.”
But the Democratic anxieties only begin with the governor’s race. They might be exceeded by fears that Republicans could pick up as many as three Dem-held House seats in the state.
“Oregon is going to be a battleground state this cycle for a whole host of reasons,” one Democrat strategist in Oregon told us last night. “And it’s definitely not a role that Oregon is used to filling.”
Those reasons include:
1. The challenging national landscape for Democrats;
2. No Democratic incumbents in key races;
3. Rising voter anxieties over crime and homelessness; and
4. Republicans successfully pivoting away from some of their more controversial positions.
— Democrats we talked to said if we forced them to choose — and we did — the race in the 4th Congressional District is the one they feel most optimistic about. Republican ALEK SKARLATOS, who put a 2020 scare into retiring longtime Rep. PETER DeFAZIO, is taking on Democrat VAL HOYLE in this coastal district that also includes the liberal stronghold of Eugene.
— In the 5th District, south of Portland, Democrats ousted seven-term moderate Rep. KURT SCHRADER in the primary in favor of progressive JAMIE McLEOD-SKINNER; the Dem-on-Dem drama has provided an opening for Republican LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER.
—The newly drawn 6th District, stretching from Portland’s outskirts to Salem, sees Democrat ANDREA SALINAS and Republican MIKE ERICKSON facing off in a suburban seat that Biden won by 13 points. But Erickson, who owns a logistics business, has closed the gap in part by spending more $1 million of his own money in TV ads. (While POLITICO rates it lean Democratic, Cook Political Report moved the race to toss-up Tuesday.)