“House GOP Shows Signs of 2024 Strength” in California
Republicans are on offense in California with House Members and candidates well-positioned to win in 2024.
GOP Members and candidates are boosted by their fundraising strength, track record of outperforming the political environment and a litany of messy Democrat primaries.
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RealClearPolitics
Susan Crabtree
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But in politics, fundraising is the one thing a party and candidate can directly control, and a RealClearPolitics analysis of California incumbents and their challengers’ campaign cash shows several California GOP House candidates in heavily targeted races in positions of strength.
Rep. Michelle Steel, who represents an Orange County district and top Democratic target seat, has raked in $2 million in fundraising so far this year, the most money of any House member in a competitive race. In a nearby district, Rep. Young Kim came in second with $1.9 million so far this year.
Meanwhile, Scott Baugh, who finished within 3.4 points of defeating Rep. Katie Porter in 2022 despite being vastly outraised, has amassed $1.5 million so far in the race, the most money of any Republican challenger across the country.
“California Republicans are no strangers to tough races,” Kim told RCP earlier this week. “I won by 14 points in a district Joe Biden won in 2020. That’s because I am laser-focused on finding solutions to the real problems facing Californians, from record high gas prices and rising crime to soaring living costs and tax hikes.”
Republicans may also benefit from Democrats’ inability to clear their primary fields in several key districts. The state’s March 5 primary is just five months away, and in several key districts, Democratic primaries have devolved into brutal intraparty fights similar to those that played out in New York in 2022. In many of those same races, Republicans are leading in cash on hand.
In the contest to see who will challenge GOP Rep. David Valadao, a perennial Democratic target in the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley, Democrats Rudy Salas and Melissa Hurtado are both refusing to stand down. The intra-party clash is scrambling their party’s plans and causing each to spend precious resources trying to take each other out before confronting Valadao in the general election.
To the south, in a district that voted for Biden and encompassing Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties, Democrats face a messy primary between retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr and school board member Allyson Damikolas. Kerr and Damikolas raised just $120,000 and $155,000 respectively in the second quarter, Federal Election Commission records show – a meager amount compared to GOP incumbent Kim’s war chest.
In the C-shaped 45th district, which includes portions of Los Angeles and Orange counties, Democrats face another even more fractious three-way primary between Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen, whom Rep. Katie Porter has endorsed, attorney Derek Tan, and lawyer and TikTok influencer Cheyenne Hunt. The winner of that Democratic battle will take on master fundraiser Steel in a district Biden won by 11 percentage points.
In coastal Orange County’s 47th district, which nearly fell into the GOP column in 2022, Porter’s Senate run has left the race wide open. Porter-endorsed David Min, a state senator who suffered from an embarrassing drunk-driving arrest earlier this year, is locked in a vicious battle with progressive activist Joanna Weiss. Both Min and Weiss are trying to outflank each other from the left, while Baugh outraised each in the second quarter.
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Valadao and several House GOP candidates in tight reelection contests performed far better in 2022 than Trump did in their districts in 2020, with five, including Valadao, Kim, Steel, and Reps. Mike Garcia and John Duarte, besting his vote percentage by double digits. Rep. Ken Calvert, a Republican who has served in Congress for three decades, won his district by 5% in 2022, outrunning Trump’s 2020 margin by 4%.
In 2021, Duarte’s district in the state’s agriculture-focused Central Valley voted in favor of recalling Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom by 8%, while Newsom easily defeated the recall 61.9% to 38.1% statewide.
Republicans also have a better chance of expanding their California ranks thanks to strong GOP recruits. In the 9th district, Stockton’s popular mayor, Republican Kevin Lincoln, has a strong well of support to back his efforts to oust Democratic Rep. Josh Harder. And in the 49th district, which spans southern Orange and northern San Diego counties, Hispanic businesswoman Margarita Wilkinson last week announced a $1 million haul during her first quarter in the race, in what Republicans view as the party’s most formidable challenge yet to Democrat three-term Rep. Mike Levin.