NRCC Statement on Spanberger throwing in the towel

November 13, 2023

Abigail Spanberger formally announced she is throwing in the towel, declining to run for re-election in the swing 7th District of Virginia that has been trending toward the GOP. Here is why that is devastating news for House Democrats:

  • Spanberger’s 7th District is the third Democrat-held swing district to come open in the 2024 cycle, along with CA-47 (Porter) and MI-7 (Slotkin).
  • This district is trending toward Republicans. A proprietary NRCC analysis of the 2023 Virginia legislative elections shows a trend in three underlying competitive state legislative races overlapping with the 7thCongressional District:
    • Senate District 27: Biden won Senate District 27 by 5.8% in 2020, but last week Republicans earned a 2.2% victory, an 8.0% GOP swing. 
    • House District 22: Biden won House District 22 by 5.3% in 2020, but last week Republicans earned a 5.4% victory, a 10.7% GOP swing.
    • House District 65: Biden won House District 65 by 11.6% in 2020, but last week Democrats earned only a 5.5% victory, a 6.1% GOP swing.
    • The average Republican swing in this district is 8.3%, well more than Biden’s 6.8% margin in 2020, and Spanberger’s 4.6% margin in 2022. 
  • Spanberger’s fundraising prowess helped Democrats hang on by their fingernails. In 2022, Spanberger spent $9.4 million compared to the GOP candidate’s $3.6 million to win a close election. She ended the 2022 cycle with only $280k cash on hand, showing it took every dollar to win. Without Spanberger’s fundraising prowess, Democrats will be hard-pressed to win.
  • Spanberger is the 18th House Democrat to forego running for reelection under Hakeem Jeffries’ leadership in the House minority. 

“Nothing is going right for Democrats in Virginia’s Seventh District, but the NRCC is all hands on deck to flip this now-open seat and grow the House Republican majority. Spanberger joining the other swing-district Democrats racing for the exits makes House Democrats’ climb out of the minority that much steeper.” – NRCC Spokeswoman Delanie Bomar