ICYMI: MI-08 is a ‘Prime pickup’ opportunity for GOP

December 11, 2023

It’s been nothing but bad news for Michigan Democrats since Dan Kildee’s retirement announcement.

As reported by the Washington Examiner, a new poll shows Republicans have a “prime pickup opportunity” with the generic ballot at a statistical tie (45%-46%) and with a Republican candidate leading a Democrat candidate by 8% among independents.

In case you missed it…

Kildee’s open Michigan seat a ‘prime pickup’ opportunity for GOP: CLF polling memo
The Washington Examiner
Reese Gorman

In a new polling memo, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC closely aligned with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), views Michigan’s 8th Congressional District seat, which recently became open after Rep. Dan Kildee’s (D-MI) retirement announcement, as a pickup opportunity for House Republicans.

[…]

With Kildee’s retirement, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved the seat from a “Lean Democrat” to a “Toss Up,” and new polling from CLF obtained by the Washington Examiner shows that to be the case.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, the GOP front-runner for president, are tied 44% to 44% despite the district not having gone for Republicans in the presidential election in recent history, according to the polling.

In the generic ballot, Democrats hold a slight advantage at 45% to 46%, but a Republican candidate leads among independents by 8%.

When the group polled local Republicans who have been elected in the district, they led a possible Democratic rival 43% to 40%. CLF declined to name the specific officials it polled.

Biden’s approval rating is also low in the district, according to the poll, which showed 41% of voters approve of the job he is doing and 52% disapprove.

“Voters say that President Biden’s performance makes them less likely to support Democrats down-ballot by a margin of 10%, with 52% of independents saying they are less likely and only 21% saying they are more likely,” the memo reads.

[…]

Read more here.