NRCC MEMO: Gale-Force Immigration Barrage Moved Numbers in New York

February 14, 2024

WASHINGTON – The National Republican Congressional Committee released the following memo today after the NY-03 special election:

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: National Republican Congressional Committee
DATE: February 14, 2024
SUBJECT: Gale-Force Immigration Barrage Moved Numbers in New York

SETTING THE STAGE:
It was an uphill battle. In a historically Democratic district, our opponents recruited a longtime incumbent as their standard bearer beginning the race with high positive image ratings, a big cash advantage, and brand equity as a moderate.

Republicans had one issue that drove Suozzi’s negatives and consumed the race: immigration. The wall-to-wall coverage of the migrant crisis in New York forced Suozzi to compete on our turf. But even being outspent two-to-one, and with our candidate being significantly outraised, Republicans did significant damage to Suozzi’s image.

Imagine what we will do to any candidate without the institutional advantages Suozzi brought to the race.

THE ISLAND:
The suburban NY-3 is the fourth wealthiest congressional district in the country. President Obama won it twice, Hillary took the W in 2016 and then Biden won by eight points in 2020 – more than Clinton or Obama.

Democrats have a voter registration advantage in NY-3 of 65,652 voters.

While there is positive movement occurring on Long Island and in New York as a whole (see: recent election results), it is a district by any measure that Democrats should hold easily.

But it wasn’t. Most political prognosticators, including Cook Political Report and Crystal Ball, labeled the special election as a toss-up, showing its true competitiveness.

SUOZZI-LAND:
Tom Suozzi was the best possible recruit Democrats could coax into the race: a known commodity in Nassau and Queens counties, having previously represented the district for three terms in Congress, as a Nassau County Executive and Mayor of Glen Cove.

His father and uncle were also mayors of Glen Cove, making the Suozzi name and being elected in Nassau County synonymous.

Thanks to the family name and previously elected positions, Tom Suozzi had 81% hard name ID going into this race (per internal NRCC polling conducted from December 4-6, 2023). His favorability was 54% compared to 28% unfavorability – a 26-point positive image rating.

Tom Suozzi was functionally a popular incumbent to start the race. Voters knew him and believed he was a moderate.

Compare that to relative newcomer Mazi Pilip. The same NRCC internal poll showed Mazi Pilip’s name ID at just 22%. Her favorability and unfavorability were tied at 11% to start the race.

IMMIGRATION IS THE ISSUE:
Looking to seize control of the race, on January 18th, the National Republican Congressional Committee was the first GOP group to go on air for the special election.

At the time, our internal polls showed 31.5% of voters listed immigration as their number one concern and would decide their vote for Congress,.

Our ad, “Radical Suozzi,” hammered Suozzi on immigration right out of the gate and laid the foundation for the message that overtook the race.

Nearly two weeks after our ad went to air, our first brushfire poll survey came back (conducted on January 29th) which showed Republicans moving in the right direction using immigration as the cudgel to move Suozzi’s formidable image.

In this poll, immigration jumped to 38.6% of voters listing it as their number one issue.

Suozzi moved to a 1:1 image ratio of 47.8% – 48.1%. His liberal score jumped to 53%, with 30% labeling the so-called moderate former Congressman as “very liberal.” Most notable: “open borders/immigration” was the top recall message regarding Tom Suozzi. 40% of voters said what they had seen or heard about Tom Suozzi made them LESS LIKELY to vote for him.

After the National Republican Congressional Committee started the immigration ad bombardment, GOP-aligned groups synchronized on the same messaging. This forced Tom Suozzi to respond and backpedal, releasing two ads trying to “correct the record.”

The final poll for the Special Election was conducted on February 6th:

45.5% of voters now said immigration was their top issue
Suozzi’s image was upside down with only 45.5% viewing him favorably compared to 47.5% viewing him unfavorably.
The top recall message for Tom Suozzi: 13% recalling he is anti-ICE and 10.3% recalling he votes with Biden.

It is clear: this messaging playbook worked. Even with an initial 26-point positive image rating and decades of brand equity with voters, Republicans were able to quickly drive up Suozzi’s negatives and flip him underwater.

Imagine how this will go with any other candidate who doesn’t bring the institutional advantages Suozzi brought to the race.

DEMOCRATS HAD TO BUY A SEAT THEY HELD FOR YEARS:
All in, the National Republican Congressional Committee spent over $2.5 million. Republicans in total amounted for $8.2 million in television spending. GOP candidate Mazi Pilip spent $1.7 million – including $700k in NRCC hybrid funding – compared to Tom Suozzi’s $4 million.

But Democrats had to back up a dump truck and unload cash. In total, Democrats spent $14 million – amounting to a nearly 2-to-1 spending advantage for Democrats.

This is because Republicans’ message was stickier and the political environment is strong. Even in a seat they should hold given historical results and their candidate’s institutional advantages, Democrats had to buy a seat they held for years.

This is not sustainable across the broader map in November.

MOVING FORWARD:
There are 24 Democratic-held districts that are more Republican-friendly than NY-3 that the NRCC is targeting.

AK-AL (Peltola)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
IL-17 (Sorensen)
KS-03 (Davids)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-07 (Open – Slotkin)
MI-08 (Open – Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NC-01 (Davis)
NC-06 (Open – Manning)
NC-13 (Open – Nickel)
NC-14 (Open – Jackson)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NV-03 (Lee)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (Deluzio)
TX-28 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Open – Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

And many of the Democrats in these districts are not nearly as well-defined as Tom Suozzi. We have them on record voting against measures to secure our border. Republicans have plenty of ammunition to make them pay a price.

BOTTOM LINE:
The Republican advertising playbook in NY-3 worked: pin the border crisis to Democrats’ foreheads, force them to take ownership of setting the conditions for it, and leave them little room to maneuver except to empty out their wallets and run on our political turf. But Republicans cannot overcome a 2-to-1 candidate spending deficit deep in Biden territory.

Democrats will not have the resources to outspend Republicans 2-to-1 in every swing seat come November. Nor can they run a candidate beginning with a 26-point positive image rating in every swing seat.

It took a formidable brand and huge cash advantage for Suozzi to win through the gale-force GOP immigration barrage that damaged his image. Republicans can crush any under-funded or unknown Democratic candidate with this playbook, and we will. House Republicans still have multiple pathways to grow our majority in November.