Extreme Democrats face uphill battle in California House races

A new story on California House races paints a devastating picture for extreme Democrats, who are flailing around while voters abandon them.

Highlights:

Democrats face a turnout and enthusiasm crisis

• “Biden’s success in the state four years ago belied deeper warning signs for his party. Democrats lost three House seats that cycle, all in districts where voters also backed Biden. Turnout that year hit a 48-year high — but the benefit to the party did not trickle down-ballot.”
• “In California and nationally, the [Democrat] party has seen a clear drop-off among younger, nonwhite and more politically independent voters. The reasons for the souring are myriad — a lack of enthusiasm for Biden, disapproval of his handling of the war in Gaza, dissatisfaction with the economy or a disillusionment with politics (and both parties) overall.”
• “…If the malaise persists, it will be felt especially hard in California’s battleground districts. Every swing seat has a sizable Latino population. The districts with large Latino populations are also the ones with the largest share of young voters. (With a median age of 28, Latinos are the youngest racial or ethnic group in the country, making Democratic worries about Latinos and youth voters inextricably entwined.)”
• “Even after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, upending the electoral landscape, Democrats in California — where abortion rights remain sacrosanct — did not reap the same benefits as their counterparts across the country.”

Democrats face an uphill battle

• “And like any blockbuster, California’s marquee races come with a hefty price tag, putting Democrats on the hook for costly outlays in a state that will have little bearing on the presidential race.”
• “While both parties will have to pay high prices, in most races, the burden will be on Democrats to topple incumbents.”
• “‘Democrats are going to have to expend a ton of treasure to win these seats,’ said George Nassar, a GOP pollster. ‘They have to make a decision about whether it’s really worth the fight.’”

House Republicans are winning over minority voters

• “…While strategists from both parties agree the electorate in November will skew younger and more Latino, a boost in that turnout may not end up benefiting Democrats as much as they hope.”
• “The GOP’s improving performance among Latinos has put a new spin on the Democrats’ mantra that a diversifying electorate would be their advantage, that demography is destiny, Dichiara said. ‘It’s not what they thought,’ he said. ‘The Republican party is now competitive with ethnic minorities.’”
• “…Campaign prognosticators say Steel has the slight edge to keep her seat over Democrat Derek Tran, a first-time candidate. The Asian American population in Steel’s district is more working class, and Steel, who is Korean American, has invested for several cycles now in courting that community, navigating the distinctions among the different Asian subgroups living in the region.”

Read more here.