Story: California House races “not looking good for Democrats”

April 22, 2024

Extreme Democrats are struggling to win over voters in California’s U.S. House races. POLITICO reports:

Highlights from the story:

“The average shift by district between the primary and the general elections is less than a percentage point toward Democrats, according to a POLITICO analysis of California primaries dating back to the advent of the “top-two” system 12 years ago.”
“In the past two elections, it’s actually Republicans who have gained on average between the primary and the general election, according to POLITICO’s analysis.”
While about 10 of California’s 52 House districts are competitive, five are at the center of the 2024 map. All are held by Republicans: Reps. John Duarte and David Valadao in the Central Valley, and Reps. Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert and Michelle Steel in Southern California. These five GOP incumbents are among Democrats’ top targets anywhere in the country, but POLITICO’s analysis of the primary results found the party has a long way to go to knock them off.”
“Applying the swing from the 2022 elections in each of these districts would result in a GOP sweep.”
“In three of the districts, Democrats are relying on retread candidates who also ran in 2022.”