MI-07 Poll: Tom Barrett leading corrupt Curtis Hertel
A new MI-07 poll reported by National Journal shows Tom Barrett is running ahead in the highly competitive Congressional district, putting him in a prime position to flip the seat red.
Just about two months ago, an independent poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections showed Tom Barrett leading against extreme Democrat Curtis Hertel as well.
Read more from National Journal here or see experts below:
New polling sheds light on the Michigan race that could decide the House
National Journal
James A. Downs
September 9, 2024
All cycle, Republicans and Democrats have geared up for competitive races in Michigan that could decide the White House and control of Congress.
In particular, the race for the narrowly divided House might come down to a handful of bitterly contested races in the Wolverine State.
The 2022 contest in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District was one of the most watched races in the midterm cycle. It was the most expensive in the House, with Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin ultimately prevailing over Republican Tom Barrett by about 5 points.
A new poll of Michigan’s 7th Congressional District from the National Republican Congressional Committee shared exclusively with National Journal showed Barrett leading Democratic former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, 48 percent to 43 percent. Roughly 9 percent of respondents were undecided. The poll was in the field from Aug. 27 to Aug. 29 and was conducted by GOP firm Cygnal. The margin of error was 4.76 percent, and the poll had a sample size of 420 likely voters.
The clash between Barrett and Hertel began in earnest last summer, when the pair launched their campaigns with no opposition. As a result, they have been de facto general election campaigning for more than a year.
The race is rated by handicappers as one of the most competitive in the country: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Dave Wasserman labeled the seat the “most competitive open seat in the country” and a “pure tossup.” In Hotline’s latest power rankings of seats most likely to flip, the 7th District came in at No. 8 overall.
The polling memo said that Barrett’s image improved 9 points “without any major media spending.” More than $28 million has already been spent or reserved on ads, according to data from tracking firm AdImpact.
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An Inside Elections and Noble Predictive Insights survey from July—the only independent poll of the race so far—showed Barrett up 7 points. The poll was conducted before President Biden decided to suspend his reelection bid and while the political environment was sagging for Democrats.
NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said the 7th Congressional District “continues to be a battleground within a battleground, but Tom Barrett is quickly emerging as the stronger candidate.” Marinella pointed to Barrett’s background as a “22-year Iraq War veteran and military helicopter pilot” while contrasting Hertel as a “slimy politician,” a criticism Republicans have made of Hertel throughout the cycle.
On Monday, Barrett and the NRCC released a new ad—his first in the race—highlighting his service in the Army and his family.
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Read more here.