Congressional election in NY seen as economic test

The first U.S. Congressional election since President Barack Obama took office on Jan. 20 will be held Tuesday and may indicate what voters think of his handling of the financial crisis, political experts say.

Voters in New York state’s 20th district will elect a successor to Democratic Representative Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill a seat left vacant when Hillary Clinton became secretary of state.

The results will have little effect on the 435-member House , where Democrats have a 76-seat majority, but experts say the election may have national repercussions.

“This can be viewed as a referendum on how Barack Obama is handling the economy,” David King, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, told Reuters. “It’s national issues that are animating voters.”

High turnout for the election would be between 22 and 24 percent of the 654,000 voters, he said.

The race pits Republican State Assembly Minority Leader Jim Tedisco against Democrat Scott Murphy, a venture capitalist who has no political background.

Shripal Shah, northeast regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Murphy, who received an endorsement from Obama, would “work with President Obama to get our economy back on track.”

Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the election is centered on the economy. “Democrats are afraid to admit that this is a contest between Main Street and Wall Street,” he said.

A Siena College poll released on March 12 showed Tedisco leading by 4 percentage points, nearly within the poll’s margin of error, down from a 12-point lead at the end of February.

A win by Tedisco would help Republicans prove they can win in the Northeast, where they hold just three of New York’s 29 House seats and none of New England’s 22 seats.

“If the Republicans win they begin to build a tiny bit of momentum that they can use toward candidate recruitment for 2010 and for fundraising,” said Justin Phillips, a Columbia University assistant professor. “If the Democrats win, this race will be perceived as yet another electoral failure for Republicans and will certainly be dispiriting for their base.”

 
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