Cook, Rothenberg See Environmental Shift

Charlie Cook and Stu Rothenberg, the two most influential political handicappers in Washington, have both written in recent days of a shift toward Republicans in the national political environment as both parties gear up for the 2010 midterm elections.

Cook struck first with a bold — and widely publicized — observation in late August that “the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats.”

Cook added that his current prediction of a six to 12 seat loss for House Democrats next fall was “far too low” and noted that the chances of Democrats losing 20 or more seats was just as good as the party losing less than 20 seats.

Then, today, Rothenberg penned his usual must-read column in Fix alma mater Roll Call arguing that “growing public concern about spending, taxes and the size of government has started to shift the national landscape away from the Democrats to a more neutral position, and quite possibly toward the GOP.”

Rothenberg is far less bullish than Cook about potential large-scale seat losses in the House (or Senate) for Democrats, however, pointing out that while Republicans have scored their fair share of recruiting coups (Martha Roby in Alabama’s 2nd, Cory Gardner in Colorado’s 4th), Democrats, too, have put seats that were non competitive in recent elections — Pennsylvania’s 15th, California’s 45th — in play.

Still, Rothenberg’s broad conclusion — “the tide clearly has turned nationally, with the president’s popularity down and Democrats fighting against a growing mood of dissatisfaction,” he writes — is one that has to worry the party in power.

Electoral politics is damn near impossible to predict — particularly more than a year out from an election. But, the pronouncements of Rothenberg and Cook matter in the daily debate in political Washington; if they believe Republicans are ascendant, the GOP campaign committees are almost certain to see an influx of money and even a bit of momentum as the calendar turns from 2009 to 2010.

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