G.O.P. Gearing Up for 2010 House Races

WASHINGTON — National Republican leaders are laying the groundwork to mount tough challenges against at least six Democratic members of the House of Representatives from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut next year, emboldened by President Obama’s ebbing popularity and voter concerns over issues like federal spending and health care.

Though Congressional elections are still a year away, the Republicans have already recruited a handful of candidates and have even run advertisements in an effort to weaken Democratic incumbents around the region, several of them newcomers who rode Mr. Obama’s coattails last fall.

Among the areas of focus are eastern Long Island, Staten Island, Fairfield County, Conn., and the northern suburbs of New York City, where Representative John J. Hall has been attacked by the National Republican Congressional Committee and a candidate has emerged whom the party views as promising, a doctor who has pumped $150,000 of her own money into the race.

In the Utica area, Republicans have unleashed a series of negative radio and television advertisements against Representative Michael A. Arcuri, a second-term Democrat who narrowly won re-election in 2008, as they coax Richard Hanna, a wealthy construction executive who challenged him last year, to run again in 2010. And in New York’s Southern Tier, party officials have rallied behind Tom Reed, the mayor of Corning, as he seeks to take on Representative Eric Massa, a first-term Democrat who represents one of four New York districts that Mr. Obama lost in 2008.

The evidence that Republicans see opportunity in the region is noteworthy given their weak performance in recent elections. In 2006 and 2008, Democrats picked up nine House seats in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut and now hold a 39-to-7 advantage in the three states’ delegations.

The strategy, which independent analysts say has some potential, is to appeal to independent voters in a handful of swing districts with broad, national themes that emphasize the poor economy and the increase in federal spending and debt under Democrats.

A national Gallup poll of such independent voters this month said they preferred Republican candidates for Congress, 45 percent to 36 percent; a year ago, a similar Gallup poll showed them favoring Democrats, 46 percent to 39 percent.

“There is no doubt that there have been few Republican success stories in the Northeast in recent elections,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “But we’re very encouraged by the strong bench of candidates who are stepping up in these races.”

Representative Christopher Van Hollen, the head of the Democrats’ campaign committee, however, expressed strong doubt about whether Republicans could actually mount credible challenges in the region next year. “The last elections have demonstrated that the Republican Party in Washington is way out of the mainstream of these districts,” he said.

Nationally, the most recent campaign finance disclosure reports showed that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $10.7 million on hand, compared with the $4.2 million that the National Republican Congressional Committee has. At such a financial disadvantage, it is unclear how much of an effort the Republicans will mount in the Northeast given the number of competitive races shaping up in parts of the country that are generally more hospitable to them.

And in several districts that seem favorable to Republicans demographically, the party is struggling to recruit suitable candidates, even as potentially bruising primary battles among their own are taking shape in other districts. “We still have a challenge ahead of us in the region,” Mr. Lindsay acknowledged.

In Connecticut, for example, Republicans see opportunity in the Fourth Congressional District, which stretches from the New York border to Bridgeport and beyond, since the seat was held by Republicans for nearly four decades before Jim Himes was elected in 2008. But Republican Party leaders failed to recruit their preferred candidate, John McKinney, the Republican leader in the State Senate, whose father once held the Congressional seat. Now, several lesser-known Republicans are fighting among themselves for the chance to challenge Mr. Himes.

The party runs the risk of a similar setback in New York’s 20th Congressional District, near Albany, where Republicans have an overwhelming registration advantage over Democrats.

Party leaders have been trying to recruit John Faso, a former state assemblyman and the Republican nominee for governor in 2006, to run against Representative Scott Murphy, a Democrat who won a special election in April after Kirsten E. Gillibrand’s appointment to the Senate. But Mr. Faso has so far declined to say what he plans to do.

On eastern Long Island, in a swing district, Republicans are hoping to unseat Timothy H. Bishop, a four-term Democrat, with a well-financed challenger. Randy Altschuler, an entrepreneur, has pumped $450,000 of his own money into the campaign; his latest disclosure reports show about $540,000 in the bank; Mr. Bishop has $710,000.

As they are doing elsewhere in the country, Republicans say they will seize on public concern about government spending under Democrats. Mr. Bishop was confronted on that issue this spring during a boisterous town-hall-style meeting in his district.

Republicans also feel optimistic about their prospects on Staten Island, which John McCain also carried last year. Michael E. McMahon, who last November became the first Democrat in 28 years to win the district, is facing Michael Allegretti, an executive with the Climate Group, an environmental organization, who has nearly $155,000 in his campaign account, compared with Mr. McMahon’s roughly $760,000.

The early Republican effort in the Southern Tier, which encompasses more than a dozen counties along New York’s border with Pennsylvania, offers a preview of what party leaders say is likely to occur next fall. For months, Republican Party operatives have kept a close eye on Mr. Massa, the district’s freshman congressman, as he attempts to balance the conservative leanings of his district with the demands of his party’s liberal base.

In August, while attending a liberal bloggers’ convention, Mr. Massa was caught on tape saying, in regard to his support of a government-run insurance plan, “I will vote adamantly against the interests of my district if I actually think what I am doing is going to help.”

The National Republican Congressional Committee immediately created a video called “Democrats Think You’re Stupid” highlighting the comments, and distributed it to news organizations. Party operatives say it will almost certainly be fodder for campaign commercials next year.

Mr. Massa, whose office has dismissed the attacks as partisan games, is leaving nothing to chance, aware that House members are most at risk of defeat when seeking their second term. In addition to raising more than $800,000 in the past year, he has maintained a furious pace of public appearances in the district, holding 64 town-hall-style meetings since the beginning of 2008.
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