Parties See Obama As Key To 2010 Battle

One year ahead of the highly anticipated 2010 midterm elections, voter intensity is an impediment to House Democrats seeking to hold their majority while fundraising shortages complicate efforts for the motivated House Republicans who hope to wrest it away.

For both parties, the key to how they fare might come down to two words: President Obama.

Democrats hope to inspire the legions of new voters who came to the political process in 2008 because of Obama. Republicans hope to capitalize on what they see as growing discontent toward the president.

“Turnout is a big issue for us a year from now,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. “We need the voters who turned out for President Obama to turn out in the same proportion for us. Those voters need to understand that this will be a midterm report card for President Obama and will be a huge statement about how he’s doing. That will be our challenge.”

Despite the historical challenge in a president’s first midterms, however, Van Hollen questioned more recent GOP enthusiasm and the growing chorus that some House Republicans believe they can retake the majority. “The talk of 1994 redux is hallucinatory,” he said.

In 1994 Democrats were caught by surprise and “didn’t see it coming till the last weeks. We’ve been preparing since Day One,” Van Hollen said.

But 10 months ago when Democrats were riding high off Obama’s solid victory and their additional electoral wins, plenty of members “didn’t get it.” Newer members did, he said, but more senior members really didn’t until the “wake-up call” they were served in August.

The Marylander stopped short of saying the difficulty the party faced in the long summer recess was a blessing, but insofar as it forced members to realize they need to be prepared for a very difficult cycle, it helped. “If they didn’t get it in January, August was a wake-up call.”

Van Hollen reiterated his belief that the best defense is a good offense but pointed out the party worked tirelessly in the last two cycles to pick up 54 seats. “We cannot and will not neglect those members.”

But as approval ratings have fallen for the president and the outlook has toughened for Democrats, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions of Texas has seen room for optimism after two straight cycles of GOP gloom.

“First of all, what’s changed is the president came in with a high level of expectation, as well as the thinking that he’d be given latitude,” Sessions said. Instead, Obama’s message to the GOP was, “‘I’m sorry, we won, you lost,’ and that began this parade of their political agenda that I believe has lost favor with the American people. And so the American people have begun speaking out, and that, I believe, is a huge change.”

Sessions continued, “He had built up, probably, at least a year’s worth of good will that he dashed.”

The NRCC got off to a rough start this year, but Sessions said he is pleased with how things are going now. “We have to go get candidates,” he said, alluding to the NRCC being about halfway to the 80 recruits it wants to line up to challenge Democratic incumbents.

“Our candidates have to go from good to great,” Sessions added. “They’re pretty good right now, but they still have to go further, and we have to get more of them.”

The DCCC has 42 members on its Frontline list and there are 47 candidates in the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program so far. The districts on both lists are mostly the same, but there are a handful of disparities.

In laying out the landscape, Sessions listed former state Sen. Joe Heck, running against Nevada Rep. Dina Titus; businessman Rob Cornilles against Oregon Rep. David Wu; and state Sen. Steve Stivers against Ohio Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy as some of his leading candidates. Stivers, who ran against Kilroy last year, is “going to run and win this time in Ohio,” he said. He also singled out former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan, who’s running for the open seat Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is vacating for his Senate run, as a “great person.”

Beyond those seats, Sessions said both seats in New Hampshire are really strong opportunities for Republicans, and in Pennsylvania he said Republicans will “kick butt.” He went on, “Virginia is really good. North Carolina’s coming along. Alabama, we’re gaining momentum.”

The DCCC ended September with $14.7 million in the bank and $4 million in debt, while the NRCC entered the fourth quarter with $4.3 million in the bank and $2 million in debt. Some House Republican strategists have griped that until recently, donors were fixated on the Senate because they sensed regaining the majority wasn’t possible and sent their money that way. But as the climate has changed, GOP operatives insist their fundraising is on the uptick, though Sessions is less concerned with the fundraising disparity right now as he is focused on the grassroots.

Democrats agree that the political environment has soured, but they don’t believe they are in danger of losing the majority. Party strategists estimate that where things stand now, they will lose in the neighborhood of 15 seats. But a net loss of 15 seats heading into the 2012 presidential election, when turnout will almost certainly be higher, would still leave the majority with about 242 seats, a still-comfortable cushion over the 218 votes needed to control the House.

And in that vein, leading House Republican strategists have had to deal recently with overhype and excited members pronouncing the GOP has a real shot at retaking the majority next year.

Privately, some senior GOP aides say they think it’s time to start tamping down expectations, while others say the idea that the majority is within reach motivates members to get active, give money and help in ways they haven’t seen until the momentum started to shift.

Still, most concede that while 2010 should be a successful year for them, getting back into the majority might be a bit of a reach.

Van Hollen said Democrats won’t take their control for granted in the 2010 cycle.

“There’s a danger in over-hyping things for them versus complacency for us. This will be a very tough election cycle,” he said.

“There’s an X factor beyond individual control,” he said, citing the economy and “other things foreign and domestic. I believe our members are doing everything they can within our control.”
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