NRCC MEMO: ONE YEAR LATER: DEMOCRATS ON DEFENSE

December 17, 2009

TO: HOUSE REPUBLICAN MEMBERS, CANDIDATES, AND STAFF
FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS
DATE: DECEMBER 17, 2009
SUBJECT: ONE YEAR LATER: DEMOCRATS ON DEFENSE

What a difference a year makes. Nearly twelve months ago, Democrats were at the peak of their political power following a sweeping and historic election. Since then, Speaker Pelosi has successfully steered her party into a political abyss so daunting that senior members of her caucus would rather throw in the towel than face a disgruntled electorate back home.

Remember what Democrats and political prognosticators were saying about the so-called demise of the Republican Party in November of 2008?:

“Thumped convincingly in consecutive election cycles, the Republican Party now finds itself in its worse straits since the rise of the conservative coalition.” (Jonathan Martin, “GOP in dire straits,” Politico, 11/06/08)

Following Republican gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey, the political discussion has changed markedly:

“We already knew Democrats had problems. Tuesday just confirmed it.” (Charlie Cook, “Democrats’ Woes Confirmed,” National Journal, 11/07/09)

The writing on the wall is clear – Congressional Democrats today are left with a mandate for defeat in 2010. With trillions of new debt, devastating unemployment numbers, a failed stimulus, and massive new spending bills stalled with congressional inaction, Democrats have officially sacrificed their control of the Majority in order to force a reckless and unpopular agenda on American families.

RETIREMENTS: A TREND OF THROWING IN THE TOWEL

Speaker Pelosi may or may not realize the political consequences of her agenda, but the fact that senior House Democrats are jumping ship is proof-positive that the environment has shifted dramatically in the past year. Rep. Bart Gordon put it best when he explained his retirement announcement:

“My shelf life was starting to run out. Our district clearly is a more difficult environment.” (Bill Theobald, “Rep. Bart Gordon’s exit in 2010 alters politics for TN,” Nashville Tennessean, 12/15/09)

For this reason, the NRCC has no plans to halt our efforts to target these senior members and force Democrats to defend seats that are increasingly leaning in our favor:

“Always being helpful, the National Republican Congressional Committee already has an effort designed to push a dozen or so wavering Democrats toward retirement decisions…..[T]he current number of Solid and Likely Democratic seats is 218, coincidentally the barest possible majority. As a practical matter, no party has ever lost or won all of the competitive races, but the shrinkage we have seen lately in those Solid and Likely Democratic columns means that any more retirements in tough districts will be a problem for Democrats.” (Charlie Cook, “How Deep Is The Water For Democrats?,” National Journal, 12/15/09)

Meanwhile, the early exit of four senior Democrats in just four weeks has also set off alarm bells within the highest ranks of the Democratic Party as they brace for even more:

MOORE (KS-03): “The larger implications of Moore’s retirement are of some concern for House Democrats. Democrats privately expect a handful of additional veterans to hang up their hats in 2010, but remain convinced the number will stay well below the historical norm…The difference between a bad Election Night and a horrific Election Night in 2010 is probably the difference between this number staying low or creeping into the double digits.” (“Moore Retirement Moves KS-03 to Toss Up,” Cook Political Report, 11/23/09)

TANNER (TN-08): “… Tanner’s departure seems to be evidence of a validation of House Republicans’ concerted effort to recruit credible challengers to longtime Democratic members sitting in GOP-leaning districts. Stephen Fincher, a farmer, collected more than $300,000 over the last three months.” (Chris Cillizza, “Tanner to Retire,” Washington Post, 12/01/09)

BAIRD (WA-03): “…Baird’s parting gift to his party…may turn out to be the biggest headache yet for Democrats. The party faces a significant challenge in holding the swing seat, and Baird’s early retirement at age 53 could embolden other wavering House Democrats who are thinking about stepping down.” (Alex Isenstadt and Josh Kraushaar, “Baird’s exit sets parties scrambling,” Politico, 12/11/09)

GORDON (TN-06): “House Democrats got a jolt Monday when a fourth lawmaker in a matter of weeks announced his retirement, leaving party officials and strategists fearful that they represent the leading edge of a wave of departures that could leave the Democrats vulnerable to significant losses in the 2010 midterm elections.” (Chris Cillizza and Dan Balz, “Democrats lose fourth congressman to retirement,” Washington Post, 12/15/09)

EXPANDING THE PLAYING FIELD

At the beginning of this cycle, the NRCC made a commitment to expand the playing field and force Democrats to defend seats they are not used to playing in. This strategy is no doubt unfamiliar to our colleagues on the other side of the aisle:

“A cycle after the Democrats did their best to stretch the map to new lengths, Republicans are doing their best imitation.” (Aaron Blake, “GOP extends its target list for Nov. 2010,” The Hill, 09/28/2009)

There is, however, a stark difference. In the Fall of 2005, Rahm Emmanuel boasted that the DCCC had 45 good recruits. Today, the NRCC has over 70. With the leadership of Reps. Kevin McCarthy and Lynn Westmoreland, our efforts have been recognized and are proving to be fruitful:

“This year, the GOP has done its best recruiting job in several cycles.” (“Sitting In The Nosebleeds,” National Journal House Race Hotline, 11/30/09)

Among the more notable statistics are the following:

· The NRCC has recruits in 36 of the 43 DCCC Frontline districts.

· Of the 435 congressional districts, Republicans are currently running in 298 (69%).

· There are 51 GOP challengers with more than $100K cash-on-hand today.

· 12 of the 13 Democrats who voted in favor of Cap-and-Trade – and, as a result, found themselves with a credible Republican challenger – responded by opposing the House healthcare bill.

· Cook Political Report lists 77 Democrat seats as potentially competitive, with only 26 GOP seats in the same category.

DEMS OVERREACH WITH OBAMA-PELOSI AGENDA

Democrats wasted little time in enacting an agenda that has done nothing more than destroy jobs, increase debt, and eliminate competitiveness in the marketplace. Now, having seen the plummeting approval of their failed stimulus and massive government healthcare takeover, Democrats are realizing that their power over the debate on these issues has spiraled out of control. As a result, they are desperately fumbling around for a message in order to mitigate the damage they know will be inflicted by voters in November of 2010.

This year, House Republicans have stood united against bigger government, massive spending and the failed economic policies of a misguided liberal leadership. More important than us standing united as a Conference, we are standing united with the American people who are desperately sending a message to Democrat leaders that is going unanswered:

“As the debate over a health care bill enters a critical stage, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds Americans inclined to oppose congressional passage of the legislation this year. The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, finds 42% against a bill, 35% in support of it.” (Susan Page, “Opposition to health care legislation lingers,” USA Today, 11/25/09)

Congressional Democrats’ insistence on forcing an ideological agenda that fails to address real concerns of Main Street Americans spells dire consequences that Speaker Pelosi and her allies may have yet to realize:

“…Democrats seem to have forgotten what happened when Republicans pushed too far, too fast for change. Increasingly, party leaders on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue seem more interested in pushing an ideological agenda to transform the nation and the federal government rather than in dealing with the nation’s problems.” (Stuart Rothenberg, “Are Democrats Trying to Follow Past GOP Leaders Off the Cliff?,” Roll Call, 12/10/09)

POLLING: REPUBLICANS ERASING THE GAP BOTH NATIONALLY AND LOCALLY

A year after Republicans could barely claim an advantage among voters on only a handful of bread-and-butter issues, polling among key demographic groups is trending in our favor:

“A SENIOR PROBLEM”: “Democrats have a senior citizen problem. Frustrated older Americans are packing the town halls on health care. They are incredibly passionate about their Medicare benefits. Polls show senior citizens largely disapprove of health care reform ideas so far…The senior citizen problem could pose a serious problem for the 2010 election cycle.” (Victoria McGrane and Chris Frates, “The Democrats’ senior problem,” Politico, 08/12/09)

DEMS ALARMED AS INDEPENDENTS BOLT: “…[A] flurry of new polls makes clear that Democrats are facing deeper problems with independents—the swing voters who swung dramatically toward the party in 2006 and 2008 but who now are registering deep unease with the amount of spending and debt called for under Obama’s agenda in an era of one-party rule in Washington.” (Alex Isenstadt, “Dems alarmed as independents bolt,” Politico, 11/18/09)

REPUBLICANS TAKE LEAD IN GENERIC BALLOT: “Republicans lead Democrats in a test of generic congressional matchups, a new poll found Thursday. 42 percent of likely voters said they would prefer a generic Republican candidate for Congress versus 38 percent who said they would prefer a generic Democrat, according to a Bloomberg News poll released Thursday.” (Michael O’Brien, “GOP leads Dems among likely voters in generic ballot,” The Hill, 12/10/09)

Even more threatening to the Democrat Majority, Republican challengers are closing the gap against their opponents in key districts that present prime pick-up opportunities:

NV-03: “[Former state Sen. Joe] Heck, a Henderson physician who never topped 1 percent in the polls during a brief gubernatorial campaign, is tied at 40 percent with incumbent Rep. Dina Titus, D-Nev., in the race to represent Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District.” (Benjamin Spillman, “Poll shows incumbent faces test,” Las Vegas Review-Journal, 12/06/09)

MD-01: “A new poll out today from ’08 nominee Andy Harris’ (R) camp shows him leading Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD 01) 52-39% in the Eastern Shore-based CD, adding to mounting signs that the environment has shifted dramatically in the GOP’s favor in the last year.” (Tim Sahd, “MD-01: Harris Leads Kratovil,” Hotline On Call, 11/20/09)

NY-01: “…A new poll taken for his GOP foe shows [Rep. Tim] Bishop with some weak initial numbers…the fact that a 4-term incumbent who won in ’08 with 58% is polling below 50% could be an indication of trouble ahead.” (Reid Wilson, “GOP Poll Shows Potential Opportunity Against Bishop,” Hotline On Call, 12/03/09)

A MONUMENTAL OPPORTUNITY

Democrats are facing a list of daunting obstacles to the big-government agenda they seek to impose on middle-class families. Thanks to a shifting political environment, they face mounting retirements, failed recruitments, an expanded playing field of seats to defend, and a divided and demoralized base. Meanwhile, a vibrant and unified Republican Party with an energized base is prepared for 2010.

Speaker Pelosi insists she has transitioned to “campaign mode,” but she will never be able to reverse the votes of the many Democrats who stand to lose their seats after walking the plank for her destructive big-government agenda this year. Even DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen admits, “…history shows we can do everything right and still lose seats.” History teaches Republicans that Democrats can continue to do everything wrong and lose even more.

As this year comes to an end, I am proud to report that our efforts have been fruitful. While many challenges lie ahead, we stand on the precipice of a unique opportunity – with the support of the American people – to make significant, if not historic, gains in the U.S. House of Representatives. The pieces are in place for a momentous change next year, but not without the help and dedication of our Conference, candidates, and staff.

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