A critical month for House Democrats
January 4, 2010
1. December was a cruel month for House Democrats. On the first day of the month, Rep. John Tanner decided to call it quits, opening up a conservative-leaning seat in Tennessee. Eight days later Washington Rep. Brian Baird, also in a competitive district, followed suit and then on Dec. 14 Tennessee Rep. Bart Gordon announced he would step aside in a district that Arizona Sen. John McCain won with 62 percent in 2008. The month was capped off for Democrats with the news just days before Christmas that Alabama Rep. Parker Griffith (D) was switching parties. The cumulative effect of that series of political blows was that many Democratic members left for the holiday recess with a bit of a bad taste in their mouths — despite the best efforts of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) to convince them it’s not all that bad. Given all that has happened over the past month, January is a critical period for House Democrats. Do a series of members — fresh from conversations with their families and nervous about the political environment — decide that discretion is the better part of valor and step aside this month? (Keep an eye on people like Iowa Rep. Leonard Boswell and Arkansas Rep. Vic Snyder.) And, if so, do they set off a wave of retirements that turns what looked like a traditional midterm cycle for Democrats — with losses in the 20-25 seat range — into one in which control of the House is up for grabs? Expect Republicans to push VERY hard on wavering Democratic members over the next month so that they know what they are in for if they decide to run for re-election. By the end of January, we should have a pretty good sense of whether December was just an isolated bad month for Democrats or a sign of a bad year to come. ALSO READ: Why do House Republicans have money problems?
2. Of the thousands of words spilled on Sunday over the Obama administration’s handling of the unsuccessful bombing of a plane bound for Detroit on Christmas day, the ones with the most influence came from former New Jersey governor Tom Kean (R). Kean, the former co-chair of the 9/11 Commission, said in an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” program that the president had been “distracted” by other priorities like health care and the economy prior to the attack. “The president needs to supply the leadership,” Kean added. “And no matter what else is going on, this has always got to be number one.” Kean’s rebuke — while perhaps dismissed by some Democrats as simply a partisan play — carries real weight as the former governor has achieved somewhat exalted status for his role on the 9/11 Commission and is not regarded as a partisan bomb-thrower. The idea express by Kean — that Obama had taken his eye ever so slightly off the threat of terrorism to focus on other things — is potentially dangerous for the president as he positions himself for his 2012 reelection. Democratic strategists believe that their successes in fighting back against Republican attacks on national security in recent elections is premised on making clear to the American public that keeping the country safe is and always will be the party’s number one priority. Any sense that that baseline commitment isn’t being met is problematic for Obama and Democrats more broadly.
3. Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-Ariz.) continues to tease the possibility that he will take on Sen. John McCain in a primary later this year. Hayworth, who became a radio talk show host following the loss of his 5th district seat in 2006, said that he had moved into a “testing the waters” phase of a campaign, a legal term that allows the former congressman to travel the state to, well, test the waters without filing officially as a candidate with the Federal Election Commission. If he did run, Hayworth would join Chris Simcox, a founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, a prominent group opposed to illegal immigration, in the primary field. Simcox told the Arizona Republic that there was “no way in hell” he would drop out if Hayworth ran. It’s not entirely clear whether McCain could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from either Hayworth or Simcox. While the 2008 presidential nominee has never been a favorite of conservatives, he has won reelection repeatedly in the state and his recent high-profile opposition to President Obama’s health care bill may have bolstered his standing in the eyes of GOP primary voters. (It has certainly drawn him considerable press.) McCain also has the benefit of a $5 million head start over any challenger and the capacity to raise considerably more if needed. If Hayworth gets in, however, look for some movement conservatives to try and cast the race in the mold of similar ideological fights in Senate races in Florida, Illinois and California.
4. New York Rep. Peter King (R) re-opened the door to a challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) just before the holidays, a time he spent almost entirely on television as a leading critic of the Obama administration in the wake of the failed terror attack on Christmas day. But, Republican Senate strategists insist there is no real chance that King will run, meaning that they will not have a “A” or even a “B”-list candidate against the appointed senator. Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani has ruled himself out and no one expects former governor George Pataki to run either. Gillibrand’s numbers suggest real weakness — particularly in a Democratic primary where her conservative stances on immigration and guns could make her a tough sell to New York City voters — but the White House effectively cleared out the race for her when they talked Rep. Steve Israel out of the contest. Gillibrand should cruise and if, as expected, state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo runs for governor, it could be two resounding defeats for Empire State Republicans already clinging to political viability.
5. Rep. Steve King isn’t a household name to everyone but anyone who is even considering running for president on the Republican side in 2012 almost certainly has the Iowa GOPer on speed dial. That’s why King’s comments in praise of former Alaska governor Sarah Palin are so interesting. King described Palin as “the one who has the charisma, she has the momentum” in the 2012 race during an interview with Iowa Public Television, adding that “there couldn’t have been a better thing for her to do politically” than embark on her recent book tour in support of “Going Rogue” — her memoir that gives an account of the 2008 presidential race among other things. King, who endorsed former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson (R) in the 2008 caucus and primary fight, said he had learned from that experience, reflecting that he should have endorsed a candidate earlier in the process — a line sure to make ambitious GOP pols hearts go pitter-pat. King has represented 5th district since 2002; the seat spans much of western Iowa where large swaths of Republican voters call home. (The 5th went for Sen. John McCain by 10 points even as he was losing the state by an identical 10 points to President Obama in 2008.
6. For the seventh straight year, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the most admired woman in the country although former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is coming on fast, according to a Gallup poll conducted late last year. Sixteen percent of respondents named Clinton as their first or second choice as most admired while 15 percent named the Republican vice presidential nominee. A year ago Clinton stood at 20 percent to Palin’s 11 percent in the “most admired” category and two years ago the former governor didn’t even break single digits — a testament to the rapidity of her rise on the national stage. The big loser over the last few years is talk show host Oprah Winfrey, named by 16 percent in Gallup’s 2007 survey and just eight percent in this year’s poll. Winfrey’s decision to play an active role in the campaign of President Obama almost certainly had something to do with the decline in her numbers as stepping into the partisan political sphere — no matter where you step — immediately alienates roughly half the country. The only other woman to score higher than two percent in the latest Gallup poll was first lady Michelle Obama at seven percent, more than double the three percent who admired her most just one year ago.
7. Speaking of women in politics, go buy Anne “AK-47” Kornblut’s new book “Notes from the Cracked Ceiling,” a terrific look at the past, present and future for female candidates. “Despite ‘lipstick on a pig,’ ‘beat the bitch,’ and ‘iron my shirt,’ the 2008 election wasn’t just a collection of lowlights for female candidates,” wrote Kornblut in a recent piece. “It was a chance for the country and for women running for high office to learn what it will take for a woman to someday assume the Oval Office.” The 2010 election will be a proving ground to see if female politicians were paying attention as women are running for governor in California, Florida and Texas — three of the most populous states in the union — and for Senate in New Hampshire, California and Colorado. (Interestingly, five of those six women are running as Republicans.)
8. New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) didn’t wind up as the secretary of Commerce and he isn’t running for reelection in 2010, but he has been named the “citizen of the year” by the conservative Manchester Union-Leader newspaper. “From his exclusive role as chief Senate Republican negotiator in the talks that shaped the Wall Street bailout to his dire warnings about the federal deficit and his active opposition to the Democratic health-care reform plan, Gregg last year had a major role in the national policy debate and became the leading voice of the GOP in the Senate,” wrote the Union-Leader’s legendary John DiStaso. Gregg will have a role to play in 2010 as he has made clear that former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte is his preferred replacement. Ayotte is being challenged by businessman Bill Binnie and 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne. Ayotte has to hope that Gregg’s endorsement of her candidacy works out better than his choices in the last two New Hampshire presidential primaries. Gregg supported George W. Bush in 2000 only to see him get walloped by John McCain and went with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney in 2008 who, again, was bested by McCain.
9. R.W. “Johnny” Apple, the famed politics and food writer for the New York Times who passed away in 2006, was a man who knew wine. And so, his wife’s decision to auction off the bottles remaining in his cellars — split between a weekend house in Gettysburg, Pa. and his primary residence in Georgetown — should set off alarm bells for the oenophiles among us. “I can’t sit down to drink bottles that cost enormous amounts of money without feeling very guilty,” Betsey Apple told the Post’s Josh DuLac. “And I can use the money to put a new roof on the farm in Gettysburg and get some storm windows and sexy things like that.” Storm windows! ALSO READ: Apple’s guide to the 40 best cities in America — an invaluable travel companion.
10. Save this link! Political Wire has put the full year of primary dates into a handy-dandy document. The first two to watch: Illinois on Feb. 2(!) where Democrats have contested fights for governor and Senate and Texas on March 2 where Gov. Rick Perry (R) and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) are facing off in the best intraparty fight in the country.
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