Mollohan May Be on Defense in West Virginia

Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) has long epitomized Congress’ politically safe incumbent. Unopposed in 2008, he hasn’t faced a close race since early in his 28-year House career representing the northern third of his state.

But an emerging and determined Republican opposition to Mollohan, the conservative lean of his 1st district and a challenging political environment for Democrats suggest he will have to fight more vigorously to win re-election this year. CQ Politics is changing the rating of the contest to Likely Democratic from Safe Democratic.

The new rating still gives Mollohan the advantage but acknowledges the possibility that a highly competitive race could develop in the district, which includes Wheeling, Parkersburg and Morgantown.

Six Republicans had filed to challenge Mollohan as of Jan. 25, five days before the candidate filing deadline. Two of them have legislative experience — David McKinley, an engineer and former state representative, and Sarah Minear, who served in the state Senate for a dozen years.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been promoting McKinley in a field that also includes lesser-known candidates Mac Warner, Cindy Hall, Thomas Stark and Patty Levenson. The primary election is May 11.

McKinley is expected to spend some personal funds on the race, though it’s not clear to what extent because he announced his candidacy just this month, after the Dec. 31 cutoff date for fourth-quarter campaign finance reports that are due Jan. 31.

Mollohan reported Jan. 20 that he raised $136,000 in the final three months of 2009 and began this year with $65,000 cash-on-hand — a low total, but in line with previous year-end cash totals for a congressman who usually ramps up his fundraising early in election years.

Republican strategists made a run at Mollohan four years ago, when they touted the candidacy of state Rep. Chris Wakim and promised that a Mollohan-Wakim race would become one of the most competitive races in the nation. It didn’t: Mollohan wound up winning with 64 percent of the vote.

Unlike in 2006, though, Mollohan can’t count on favorable Democratic winds this year. He will have to defend his votes for an economic stimulus law, a health care bill and other legislation promoted by President Obama, who won just 42 percent of the vote in Mollohan’s district as the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee. Though West Virginia has popular Democratic officeholders in Gov. Joe Manchin and Sens. Robert C. Byrd and John D. Rockefeller IV , none of them will be on the 2010 ballot to help drive Democratic turnout.

However, he did get some good news on Tuesday. The Justice Department closed out a four-year investigation surrounding his personal finances and earmarking practices. Mollohan could still face scrutiny from the House ethics committee.
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