Paton says he's now in race for US House seat

State Sen. Jonathan Paton has joined the crowded Republican field looking to bounce Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords from Congressional District 8 after two terms.

The will-he-or-won’t-he chatter has kept political railbirds chirping for the past several weeks, with Republican strategists smelling Democratic vulnerability given the current national mood and political unrest.

Paton, who will join three other Republican contenders with military backgrounds — Jesse Kelly, Brian Miller and Andy Goss — said he likely will step down from his Senate seat after wrapping up some remaining issues.

“I see what’s happening across the country and in my own home town, and it’s wrong. It’s as simple as that,” said Paton, 38. “Every generation has always believed things were better for them than it was for their parents. For the first time, I’m hearing from people they’re really starting to doubt that. We need a change in direction from where we’re going.”

While Paton said he will soon roll out his position papers on major issues, he said Giffords erred in supporting the health-care reform package in the House. He said cap-and-trade, an environmental policy Giffords supported that allows for emissions trading, is going to dramatically increase costs when the country is already struggling economically. And he said her support for the president’s stimulus package won’t help her.

“She’s the only one of these Blue Dog Democrats in the state who voted for all three of those things. We didn’t know how she was going to stand on these issues until we had a Democratic president. Now I think people are like, ‘Whoa. Hold on a second. That’s not what we bargained for.’ ”

Paton, who served two terms in the House before jumping to the Senate, said he was heavily recruited for the race and names among his early supporters Rep. Jeff Flake. “I think people want someone who can win,” he said. He said he has respect for each of his competitors for their military service and said he suspects they share similar views on many of the big issues. “The difference is I have experience.”

Paton raised his media profile by making Child Protective Services reform a key part of legislative efforts, forcing the agency to be more open. He sponsored the successful bill to switch to nonpartisan city elections — a move that he said voters in his own district support as a way to reform the City Council, even though city voters have shot it down in the past and the city is challenging it in court, saying the state has no authority to trump local control.

He also spearheaded the drive to wrest the city’s downtown redevelopment project, Rio Nuevo, from city control by handing oversight to a state-appointed board.

The Army reservist captured significant media attention in 2006 when he voluntarily enlisted to go to Iraq, where he spent six months as an intelligence officer for the Army.

That legislative history, however, also makes him a target. The state Democratic Party sent out a press release highlighting the legislative paralysis that resulted in a stalemate for most of 2009 over how to address the growing budget shortfall. “We are surprised that Paton, who is an entrenched part of the GOP problem at the state Capitol, feels qualified to ask voters to grant him even greater responsibilities,” the party wrote in a press release.

That’s an arena his primary challengers likely will also exploit.

The 28-year-old Kelly, widely considered the front-runner in the race until Paton jumped in, said he’s not concerned about Paton’s much-heralded experience. “This is not the year of the establishment candidate. People are tired of politicians on both sides, and they want someone new, who’s not part of the political arena.”

Kelly already has raised a quarter of a million dollars and counts 700 volunteers. He’s already had backing from Rep. Trent Franks and Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. “It’s great he wants to joint this fight,” he said. “I will be looking forward to getting his support after I win the primary.”

Giffords sent out a statement saying she has known Paton since middle school and counts him among her friends.

“I look forward to discussing our nation’s most important issues with whomever the Republican nominee is,” she said, noting she remains focused on securing the border, rebuilding the economy and ensuring access to affordable health care.

Meanwhile, Giffords’ war chest in September of last year was at $1.4 million.

Pima County Democratic Chairman Jeff Rogers said Paton’s entry into the race will be interesting. “On the good side, the climate is good for a Republican, although that could change. On the bad side, he’s taking on one of the best fundraisers in all of America. The movers and shakers nationwide love Gabby. She’s smart, a formidable fundraiser and she has a lot of political savvy.”

Indeed, Giffords’ supporters note she handily dispatched two Republican lawmakers in earlier campaigns — the conservative Randy Graf and the more centrist Tim Bee — so legislative experience and name ID do not necessarily translate into victory.

Paton said they’re forgetting something. “The biggest difference is that this is 2010. It’s not 2008 and it’s not 2006.”

And Giffords, he said, has made some political missteps. She has raised her profile, and some eyebrows, as chairwoman of the House space subcommittee, even though her husband is an astronaut. Giffords’ camp notes her role was approved by the ethics committee, in part because her husband actually works for the Navy, assigned to NASA’s space shuttle program.

And while she has openly talked about her trip to an international conference on climate change in Copenhagen as part of a 21-member bipartisan congressional delegation, it has raised questions about how much it cost.

Media reports indicated as many as 100 congressional members and staff attended the summit, and press reports have shown video of Giffords walking hand-in-hand with her husband.

“I think the public is hyper-aware right now of any perceived abuse, and I think that in this current climate, they don’t want to see their elected officials using privileges the average citizen isn’t going to have access to,” Paton said.

Zipping around on a jet, he said, is “wasteful and it sends the wrong signal when we’re hurting in the United States and you have people going overseas to what’s really an executive function and at which nothing was accomplished.”

Giffords said the conference was “not an abstract academic exercise,” but the issues and relationships formed will have future impacts.

Republican pollster Margaret Kenski said Giffords has some vulnerability on her voting record. “The advantage still goes to an incumbent, but if the winds are blowing in the Republican direction, having someone who has won some races, who is relatively young, who has some things in the record that will appeal to voters — all those things would be advantages.”

On the other hand, she said, Giffords gets favorable media and she’s got a lot of money. “I’m not saying he couldn’t do it. He has a better shot than the others, but how fast he can establish a war chest is the critical thing.”

Giffords probably won’t have a primary. But Republican National Committeeman Bruce Ash said the primary will help energize his party’s volunteers. It’s a base, he said, that’s ripe for action.

He’s a regular at Republican meetings around town: “If there were 50 people at a meeting before, there’s 100 today. Republicans are energized.” Ash said he likes Republican chances among independent voters as well.

And, he said, with the president talking about tackling immigration reform, it’s going to dramatically change the political climate. “That’s a sleeping giant as an issue that’s really going to rip things apart,” he said, saying any attempt at amnesty or a path to citizenship will further energize the grass roots.
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