GOP eyes potential for picking up U.S. House seats in Mid-South

A Republican operative reviewing a map of open seats and conservative districts now held by Democrats calls the Mid-South “ground zero” for GOP pickups in the House of Representatives this fall.

To academics surveying the same scene, the analysis seems to hold up. Long-held Democratic seats may fall this year to a historic trend that has steamrollered the South for Republicans since Richard Nixon unwrapped his “Southern Strategy.”

Outside of Memphis — whose 9th District seat will likely be held by a solid blue Democrat whether former Mayor Willie W. Herenton or incumbent Steve Cohen wins the August primary — the capital of the Mid-South looks to some experts to be surrounded by a wave of blue districts turning Republican red.

Rhodes College professor Marcus Pohlmann said the old Yellow Dog or Blue Dog seats Republicans are targeting represent “the last gasp of the old Roosevelt Coalition.”

“Some of those seats are holdovers from an old era and were probably due to go red anyway, eventually,” Pohlman said.

Republican National Congressional Committee spokesman Andy Sere, besides calling the region “ground zero,” said that part of the impetus comes from policies being pursued by the Obama administration in a region that places a premium on “traditional values.”

“But another part of it is a historical trend that’s been a long time coming, but I think Obama has accelerated the pace,” Sere said.

Today, Democrats represent 11 of the 17 seats in the three-state Mid-South House delegation. If the pundits are right, come November, the Republicans will pick up five formerly Democratic seats and flip the 11-of-17 margin.

The influential Cook Political Report last week said the 8th District seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. John Tanner, D-Tenn., which includes northern parts of Shelby County, is a “toss up,” and the First District seat held by retiring Marion Berry, D-Ark., which includes the counties just across the Mississippi River, is “leaning Republican” in November.

Political scientist Charlie Cook also sees the seat held by U.S. Rep. Travis Childers, D-Miss., which includes DeSoto and Marshall counties, a “toss- up.”

Sere said the Memphis area is the only place in the country with three seats likely to turn from blue to red in the same media market.

In addition to those three Democrat seats possibly changing hands, Cook places Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, now held by Democrat Vic Snyder, and Tennessee’s 6th District, held by retiring Democrat Bart Gordon, also in the “leaning Republican” column.

Tennessee Democratic Party Chairman Chip Forrester believes the prognosticators are misreading key elements of the races shaping up in Tanner’s and Gordon’s districts. He points out that Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron of Dresden, seeking Tanner’s 8th District seat, is a minister and country lawyer who already represents nine of the district’s 19 counties and has been a prodigious fundraiser despite Tanner’s sudden December withdrawal.

Forrester said pundits look at Gordon’s Middle Tennessee district and see the 2008 performance of John McCain and Sarah Palin. But they overlook Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen’s and Harold Ford Jr.’s solid performances there, he said. Forrester added that college professor Greg Rabidoux, running against what he called “an extreme right-wing fringe” candidate and “mouthpiece” in U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., is doing well in the 7th District, which stretches into eastern Shelby County.

Yet, The Rothenberg Political Report by Stuart Rothenberg last week put Gordon’s seat near the top of his “Dangerous Dozen” likely to change hands.

While Rothenberg says Herron, the Democratic candidate for Tanner’s seat, is a strong fundraiser, “being a longtime Democratic state legislator may be more of a liability than an asset in 2010.”

That’s because the GOP establishment in Washington has rallied around the gospel-singing Crockett County farmer Stephen Fincher for Tanner’s seat and have touted his ability to raise money. Fincher will be challenged by Shelby County Commissioner Dr. George S. Flinn Jr. and by Jackson Dr. Ronald H. Kirkland in what is likely to be a high-profile and expensive race for the open seat.

Forrester predicted a “bloody” GOP primary fight that could redound to Herron’s benefit.

Childers’ opponent, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee of Tupelo, has been a prodigious fundraiser but is being challenged by Henry Ross, the former mayor of Eupora, for the Republican nomination. A bruising Republican primary the last time around helped put Childers in the seat vacated by Roger Wicker when he was elevated to the U.S. Senate.
Click here to read the full story.