National Democrats growing increasingly worried about Hawaii special election

National Democrats are growing increasingly concerned that the presence of two well-known candidates in an all-party special election in Hawaii next month will badly jeopardize their chances of holding the seat and are weighing the options available to them to thin the field.

White House political Director Patrick Gaspard has been active in expressing concerns that in a low-turnout special election, which is set for May 22, former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote enough to allow Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win. Under Hawaii special election rules, all candidates — regardless of party affiliation — run on a single ballot.

(Rep. Neil Abercrombie, a Democrat, held the seat easily for two decades before resigning earlier this year to run for governor.)

While the White House — and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — have stopped short of endorsing in President Barack Obama‘s home state, insiders say they are convinced that the only way to win is with a single Democratic candidate.

And, it’s becoming increasingly clear that most — though not all — Democratic strategists believe Case is that candidate due to his ability to pull enough independent and Republican votes to beat Djou in a head-to-head matchup.

An ad being sponsored by the DCCC, which hits Djou for his record on job creation, ends with the narrator saying that “Hawaii needs a Congressman on our side.” That’s CongressMAN not CongressWOMAN. And, no, that’s not by accident — nothing ever is in a 30-second television ad. (For the record, DCCC officials insist nothing should be read into the “congressman” message.)

The problem for national Democrats is that Case is roundly loathed by the Hawaii party establishment. Why? In 2006, Case decided to challenge Sen. Daniel Akaka in the Democratic primary — a no-no in the go-along-to-get-along, wait-your-turn politics of the Aloha State.

Both Akaka and Inouye are behind Hanabusa — Inouye’s Hawaii-based chief of staff is helping her in the special election — and don’t appear to be budging.

And, the perceived favoritism for Case among some national Democrats is already rankling some interest groups. The Asian American Action Fund released a statement today saying that it is “unseemly for party officials to step into a special election with more than one Democrat” and noted that nearly six in ten residents of the 1st district are of Asian Pacific descent.

The White House and DCCC are in an extremely difficult spot. Initiating a top-down endorsement isn’t ideal in an outsider political environment like this one — particularly with the state’s two U.S. Senators lined up on the other side — but losing a special election in a district that went for President Barack Obama with 70 percent in 2008 would add to a negative national narrative for Democrats heading into the fall.

Looming over all of the thinking about Hawaii is what happened in the Massachusetts Senate special election in January. The national party swooped in to try to save state Attorney General Martha Coakley’s candidacy in the final weeks of the campaign but it was too little, too late.

National Democrats clearly want to avoid a repeat of that situation. But the politics of Hawaii — and of Case and Hanabusa particularly — are complicated. Can Democrats find a way to victory?
Click here to read the full story.