Nunnelee Leads Childers In GOP Poll
| Just two weeks after his 51% primary victory, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) now leads Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) by eight points, according to a poll conducted for his campaign.
The Tarrance Group (R) poll conducted for Nunnelee, obtained by Hotline OnCall, surveyed 303 likely voters between June 8-9 for a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. Nunnelee and Childers were tested. GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP Nunnelee 50% (+8 from Mar. survey)Childers 42 (-9) Nunnelee has undoubtedly benefited from a few good weeks. Not only did he win his 6/1 primary without a run-off, he’s also gotten his defeated challengers to line up behind his campaign. This means that Childers not only has to face a united GOP — something he had the good fortune of not facing in ’08 — he’ll also have to defend his voting record. While he ranked as the third-most conservative Dem in ’09, according to National Journal vote rankings, that may not be enough to insulate him from the coming GOP wave. Earlier this year, Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) — the Dem with the most conservative vote record in ’09 — released a poll showing him with a 20%+ lead over his closest GOP challenger. That survey also showed the AL Dem with a 68% fav/25% unfav rating. Nunnelee’s survey shows Childers doesn’t catch the same breaks as Bright. Unlike Bright, Childers has voted with Dem leadership on several issues, including on the stimulus. GOPers also believe he erred in waiting until the final days to declare his intent to vote against the recent health care overhaul legislation. Dems argue that Childers voted against an earlier version of the bill, and say he made his official “no” declaration just a day after the final bill was dropped, therefore giving him time to read it. Therefore, while Blue Dogs like Bright and even Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) appear to be starting their general election campaigns in decent shape, they may be an isolated cases, and may not be harbingers of good news to other conservative or moderate Dems who sit in GOP-leaning districts. Indeed, a motivated GOP base is greatly aiding Nunnelee’s cause against Childers. Among those “extremely” likely to vote (64% of the sample), the Tarrance Group survey says Nunnelee leads by 18%. All is not lost for Childers, however. Nunnelee spent nearly $500K in his primary, and thus had just over $150K in the bank in May. Childers, meanwhile, is sitting on a $700K warchest. To continue his momentum, Nunnelee will need to quickly ramp up fundraising for the general. Childers is a smart campaigner, and won’t be taken out simply by the district’s strong GOP lean. But Nunnelee has enjoyed a very strong June, and that has apparently put him in very good shape for the fall. |