Five To Watch As Second Quarter Ends

Here are 5 people to watch as campaign finance reports roll in:

NRCC’s Young Guns: The GOP has a big playing field, and party strategists have been worried all cycle that the NRCC won’t have the money to take full advantage of the opportunity. The NRCC’s fundraising numbers are up, but candidates have to consider the possibility they won’t have endless national party support in the homestretch.

By and large, endangered Dems have stopped giving to the party committees and are instead hoarding cash for themselves. Young Guns have been seriously outraised by their rivals in previous quarters, and we’re watching to see whether they’ve reversed that worrying trend. Money isn’t everything in politics, especially in a national wave year, but it becomes a factor when candidates get swamped by multiples of 2, 3 or 4 to one.

And don’t be fooled by straight-up fundraising numbers: Some candidates are using direct mail to solicit donations, meaning they bring in a lot, but they burn tons of cash in the process. It doesn’t do any good to raise $2M if you’ve only got $200K to spend. We’re looking at you, FL 22 candidate Allen West (R) and Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-LA).

Retiring Dems: The silver lining of a very dark cloud: With Dems abandoning competitive seats around the country, a lot of stored up campaign cash is suddenly available. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) had $10.9M in the bank as of March 31; Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) has $2.5M; Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Reps. John Tanner (D-TN), Bart Gordon (D-TN) and David Obey (D-WI) all have more than $1M in their soon-to-be-defunct campaign accounts.

So far, only Bayh has ponied up, giving the IN Dem Party $1M on behalf of Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D). If Dems can bring pressure to bear on other exiting members to hand some, or all, of their loot over to the DNC, the DCCC and the DSCC, it could go a long way toward covering the shortfall Dems have experienced in recent months as nervous, vulnerable members keep money to themselves.

J.D. Hayworth: The AZ GOPer challenging Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) can claim something Pres. Obama can’t: He’s seen McCain’s teeth. One GOP strategist commented to us he wished McCain had been as vicious with Obama during the WH’08 campaign as he is with Hayworth. McCain’s campaign began running ads hitting Hayworth even before he got in the race, and now McCain’s camp is blasting Hayworth over a get-rich-quick free-money seminar Hayworth helped pitch after leaving Congress.

Hayworth has barely responded. It’s one thing to wait for just the right time to launch a barrage of devastating attack ads — that’s what Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) did in his winning primary challenge against Sen. Arlen Specter (D). But Sestak had $5M in the bank; Hayworth, if any forthcoming late surge is coming before the Aug. 24 primary, needs that kind of money. He had just $681K in the bank — less than one-sixth what McCain had on hand — at the end of last quarter.

Harry Reid: Reid’s plan from the beginning of the race has been to define his rival early and effectively bury the poor soul under a mountain of negative ads. He’s already launched the first salvos, attacking ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle for a litany of her past comments. Reid has said it will take $25M to win re-election, and he’s already raised about half that.

Angle is off to a good start on her own, raising north of $1.1M in the first 2 weeks after winning the GOP nomination. But Reid had $9.1M in the bank at the end of last quarter, and with it the ability to make the race all about Angle. If Angle can raise enough to make the contest a referendum on Reid, she’ll have a much better chance than she would if she simply tries to ride out the onslaught.

Sarah Palin: If you’re a gambler, pick candidates Palin has endorsed — at least in a primary. In SC, NM, MN and several other states, Palin’s candidates have overcome sometimes long odds to carry the GOP nomination. And while ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) are pursuing the traditional route in cutting checks to candidates, Palin is using her name and her Facebook page to encourage supporters to donate directly.

This quarter, we’ll see whether Palin’s endorsement is actually worth money. Keep a close eye on some of her lesser-known endorsees, like WA SEN’s Clint Didier (R) and AK SEN’s Joe Miller (R). If they go from cash-poor to flush, their rivals could have problems. If they can’t put together money, it could raise questions about the willingness of Palin’s base to write a check.

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