Tiberi Leads Red To Blue Dem
| One of the few chances Dems have to contest a GOP-held seat will be a long-shot at best, according to a new survey conducted for Rep. Pat Tiberi’s (R-OH) campaign.
The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Tiberi leading Franklin Co. Commis. Paula Brooks (D) by a 53%-28% margin. Businessman Travis Irvine (L) pulls 5%. In a memo sent to the Tiberi campaign, pollster Glen Bolger says Tiberi’s image remains strong; 54% of voters view him favorably, while 24% see him in an unfavorable light. That’s despite $450K in ads Brooks and national Dems have run, trying to soften him up. “Pat Tiberi has not been affected by the early onslaught of the Democratic establishment and enjoys a solid image and a strong lead on the Congressional ballot test. Tiberi has positioned himself in great shape for another double digit win on Election Day,” Bolger wrote. Tiberi has won his races by reasonably secure margins since taking over for ex-Rep. John Kasich (R) in ’00, though he hasn’t faced a significant challenge in recent years. Still, Dems have hope for Brooks’ campaign. She had raised $684K through the April 14 pre-primary reporting period and had $497K on hand (Brooks has not released her second quarter fundraising numbers yet). And she was one of the first Dem candidates put on the DCCC’s Red to Blue program for promising challengers. “Paula Brooks is the strongest, best funded candidate Tiberi has ever faced,” said Gabby Adler, a DCCC spokesperson. “For the first time voters will have a real choice between Tiberi’s work of putting his party and special interests ahead of Central Ohio while spending our country into debt with his fellow Republicans, and Paula’s record of fighting for jobs and protecting local small business.” But in a bad year for Dems, Red to Blue contenders won’t have the same support from the DCCC they had in ’06 and ’08, when Dems were largely focused on playing offense. Instead, independent expenditures from both parties are likely to focus in Dem-held seats. The district won’t be a safe GOP seat forever, though. The Columbus-based 12th District is 21% African American, and it gave Pres. Obama a 54% margin in ’08. What’s more, Dems have led in previous generic ballot tests conducted for the Tiberi campaign — though, indicative of the current political climate, a generic GOPer now has a 42%-41% lead over a generic Dem. The survey, conducted June 27-29, polled 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. |