Democrats privately fear House prospects worsening

Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.

In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.

They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover – or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way. They are even more concerned by indications that House Democrats once considered safe – such as Rep. Betty Sutton, who occupies an Ohio seat that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 – are in real trouble.

In two close races, endangered Democrats are even running ads touting how they oppose their leadership.

“Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.”

A Democratic pollster working on several key races said, “The reality is that [the House majority] is probably gone.” His data shows the Democrats’ problems are only getting worse. “It’s spreading,” the pollster said.

Not all Democrats – or Republicans, for that matter – share this pessimistic assessment 68 days before the election. Republicans need to pick up 39 seats, and polls show most voters still have a downbeat view of the GOP’s ability to govern any better than Democrats. Republicans have been out-raised and out-spent at the national level and in many of the key races.

“We have been saying for the past 18 months this will be a politically challenging environment,” said Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “That being said, we will retain the majority in the House. All of what you are hearing is the inside-the-beltway chatter.”

A top House Democratic strategist who agrees with Van Hollen conceded pessimism is spreading rapidly – but mainly in Washington. This strategist said the mood among individual Democratic candidates, many of whom enjoy a considerable cash advantage, is more upbeat.

Yet Democratic concern continues to manifest itself in a variety of ways, including the purchasing of ads in districts – like that of veteran Ike Skelton of Missouri — that historically are only in play in miserable political years and were not considered at risk several months ago. And then there are more subtle hints that professional Democrats are worried — lobbyists are reporting a noticeable uptick in House committee staffers looking for jobs.

Democrats disagree on the best national strategy to prevent losing the House – but mostly agree there are few good options beyond grinding it out in each individual race.

“It’s individual Democrats that are going to have to defeat flawed Republican candidates,” said Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker. “It’s important that Democrats succeed in individual races.”

Democrats also hoped to leverage a decisive fund-raising edge to bail out members over the final two months of the campaign. But, while they have raised way more money than Republicans, Democrats head into the final stretch worried that when spending by outside groups is factored in, they will have little or no advantage in spending over the next two months.

They had hoped Obama’s popularity – and appeal with base voters and donors – would help at the edges. “The concern I have is that the president is doing poorly in places you need him to perform strongly with your base,” a state party chair told POLITICO. “You need to have confidence in your leader.”

Several House Democratic sources said they are furious with the White House for keeping the debate over a New York mosque in play for two weeks – and then announcing Obama will use a prime-time address next week to discuss Iraq, not the economy. By the calculations of House Democrats, this means that by Labor Day they will have spent nearly nine weeks this summer beating back negative or unhelpful story lines instigated, in part or in total, by the White House.

Finally, Democrats had hoped memories of unpopular Republican rule under George W. Bush would convince swing voters against installing a Republican House again.

“The problem is that a lot of the message talks to the base, and we’ve got to talk to the middle,” a former state Democratic Party chairman said. “You can only blame Bush for so long.”

In some races, endangered Democrats are trying to carve out their own separate identities from the national party – even if that means bashing Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“The incumbent needs to shape the races in their district,” said Parker.

Indiana Rep. Joe Donnelly, a second-term congressman from South Bend, is airing a new TV ad in his South Bend-area district pointing out that he voted against “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax on Hoosier families.”

“The Donnelly ad is who he is,” said Parker. “He’s independent.”

It’s a spot that is strikingly similar to one Pennsylvania Rep. Jason Altmire is running, which features supporters praising the second-term Democrat for “stand[ing] up” to Obama and Pelosi.

In Washington, Democrats are testing a new strategy of trying to make the national conversation about Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) – who would become speaker of the House with a GOP takeover — a tough proposition given that most voters have never heard of him.

“We want to elevate John Boehner,” said a senior Democratic aide involved in party strategy. “We want him and his ideas to be in the forefront.”

Democrats may need this approach to stoke excitement among its base voters. But two different sets of data show Republicans with a big advantage when it comes to getting the base fired up for this campaign. A new Gallup poll out this week shows 46 percent of Republicans and just 23 percent of Democrats to be “very enthusiastic” about voting.

And before Tuesday night’s races, 15.4 million Republicans had already voted in primaries, compared with 12 million Democrats who have turned out for primaries so far in 2010.

“Hopefully, we can rally the base and turn people out,” said Jamie Franks, chair of the Mississippi Democratic Party, who predicted his party will retain control of the House.

What Democrats are watching most closely right now is to see if the field of at-risk seats does indeed keep expanding. There are fresh concerns about Reps. Allen Boyd of Florida, Jim Marshall of Georgia and Leonard Boswell of Iowa – all of whom were recently moved into the toss-up category by respected handicapper Charlie Cook.

In addition, Reps. Ben Chandler of Kentucky and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota were both outraised by their opponents this past quarter, increasing concern about their races.

Given that the DCCC has already purchased ads to defend 54 seats that the party controls, the last thing Democrats need is more seats to have to protect.

Jake Sherman contributed to this report.

Click here to read the full story.