NRCC MEMO: TENNESSEE PRIMARY RESULTS

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: AUGUST 5, 2010
SUBJECT: TENNESSEE PRIMARY RESULTS

Just one year ago, it didn’t seem likely Republicans would be able to pick up any congressional states in the Volunteer State. That conventional wisdom had become a distant memory by mid-December, when Politico declared that “no state will experience more congressional election action than Tennessee.” Reps. Bart Gordon and John Tanner – Democrat incumbents who had represented decidedly conservative districts since the 1980s – announced their retirements, and a GOP challenger had six figures in the bank versus once-safe Democrat Rep. Lincoln Davis. Eight months later, the results of tonight’s primaries further validate the new conventional wisdom: Tennessee Republicans are poised to make significant gains this fall.

Open Seats:

TN-08 (OPEN – Rep. John Tanner, D)

Stephen Fincher won tonight’s GOP primary in grand fashion, outpolling his much better-funded competitors by a two-to-one margin and racking up big margins in traditionally Democrat-leaning rural areas – a bad omen for his opponent, state Sen. Roy Herron. But just one year ago, no one would’ve mistaken Fincher for a man on the cusp of going to Congress.

Democrat Rep. John Tanner had never won with less than 62% of the vote in this historically Democratic West Tennessee district – even when he first captured an open seat in 1988. After Stephen Fincher, a young gospel-signing farmer from Frog Jump, hauled in $300,000 during his first month campaigning in September 2009, it was clear the incumbent couldn’t afford to coast this time. So he retired, reportedly headed for a lucrative lobbying career on K Street.

Following Tanner’s retirement, two more well-funded candidates jumped into the GOP primary: Dr. Ron Kirkland of Jackson and Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn of Memphis. 2010’s most expensive primary thus far, Kirkland and his brother spent around $2.5 million; Flinn, well over $3 million; and Fincher, just over $1 million (he still has nearly $300,000 banked for the general election). Despite the massive financial disadvantage and the persistent target on his back as the race’s initial frontrunner, Fincher scored about 50% in the five-way primary – a hugely impressive victory that underscores his unique appeal to everyday Tennesseans.

State Senator and Democratic nominee Roy Herron – a liberal career politician – is a fundamentally flawed candidate whose initial cash-on-hand advantage is mitigated by his extensive political baggage. He embodies why most folks are sick of politicians. Slick but sleazy, smooth but slippery, Tennesseans are already familiar with the sight of Roy running from his record now that he’s a congressional candidate. It’s no wonder that tonight Fincher received 8,000 more votes than Herron, the prohibitive favorite in a non-competitive Democratic primary, even though the hotly-contested GOP battle split the Republican vote five ways.

Over the course of the next three months, though, voters will learn all about what Roy’s been hiding in his record. For instance, seniors’ group 60 Plus is going up on the air tomorrow hitting Herron over his past support for Obama-like healthcare schemes. Tennesseans also won’t likely appreciate his history of raising taxes on the middle class while voting himself multiple pay raises; or his support for taxpayer-funded abortion; or his support for the job-killing legislation known as “card check.”

It’s no wonder the The Washington Post said this morning that “[t]he Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the fall.”

History: Historically, the Eighth District leans Democratic; much of the territory in the district has not been represented by a Republican in over a century. But voters in this agriculture-heavy area tend to be conservative on social issues and populist on economic issues – a profile Stephen Fincher matches perfectly. The district is rated as R+6 by the Cook Political Report.

Geography: The Eighth District includes most of West Tennessee outside of Memphis – including the city of Jackson – and a small portion of Middle Tennessee, including parts of Clarksville, a military town of over 100,000.

TN-06 (OPEN – Rep. Bart Gordon, D)

Democrat Rep. Bart Gordon has represented this Middle Tennessee district – Al Gore’s old seat – since 1982. But after voting for the stimulus, the budget, cap-and-trade and ObamaCare and nearly every other Democratic agenda item, he found himself trailing a Republican candidate in the polls, and he called it quits.
This seat, with its surging Republican-friendly population in the suburbs ringing Nashville – has been effectively written off by Democrats – it was not included in the DCCC’s recent 60-seat ad buy. What’s more, nearly every political analyst in Washington rates this race as the #1 most likely House seat to switch parties.

State Sen. Diane Black, who won a close GOP contest tonight, begins this race as the prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Brett Carter, who has raised just over $100,000 over several months.

History: The Sixth District has been represented by Democrat Bart Gordon since 1985. Historically, voters here have voted Democratic since the days of Andrew Jackson; however, the area has become increasingly Republican-leaning in the last decade as Nashville’s suburbs have grown. Both McCain in 2008 (62%-37%) and Bush in 2004 (60%-40%) won this district overwhelmingly. It’s rated as R+13 by the Cook Political Report.

Geography: The Sixth District is located entirely within Middle Tennessee and has transformed from a once mostly-rural area to consist largely of Nashville’s expanding suburbs, including Sumner, Wilson and Rutherford counties.

TN-04 (Rep. Lincoln Davis, D)

Rep. Lincoln Davis was elected in 2002 as a conservative Democrat to represent this sprawling, mostly rural and very conservative district. In fact, Davis holds the 9th-most Republican district in the country currently held by a Democrat according to the Cook Political Report.

But in the past couple years, he’s grown surprisingly out-of-touch. Davis voted for the president’s failed $862 billion stimulus; a $300 billion increase to the debt ceiling; a bill that the Associated Press said would allow for taxpayer-funded abortion; and for Obama’s $3.5 trillion budget, which raised taxes, added over $1 trillion to the debt and paved the way for the president’s healthcare takeover.

As a result, Republicans are poised to give him the toughest challenge he’s faced in his career. In April, the Knoxville News-Sentinel’s Tom Humphrey reported ona poll showing Davis “vulnerable” to a strong GOP challenger:

•  “A Republican-sponsored poll of 4th Congressional District voters indicates Democratic U.S. Rep. Lincoln Davis is vulnerable to a well-funded Republican challenger. It indicates Davis now has a 45 percent favorable/30 percent unfavorable rating among voters, down from 65 percent favorable/15 percent unfavorable in 2008. In matchups with two prospective Republican nominees, Davis leads 44 percent to 33 percent.”

Republicans believe Dr. Scott DesJarlais of Jasper is the right challenger at the right time. An energetic campaigner who understands first-hand why ObamaCare should be repealed – unlike Davis – DesJarlais has already raised over $300,000 and is well-positioned to financially compete against the incumbent. Davis, a notoriously lackluster fundraiser, had under half-a-million in the bank as of the last filing, one of the lowest totals of any targeted incumbent.

History: The Fourth District shares portions of traditionally heavy Republican East Tennessee and traditionally Democratic Middle Tennessee. After giving George W. Bush a 17-point victory over John Kerry in 2004, this district’s growing Republican muscle was flexed with John McCain’s 30-point win (64%-34%) over Barack Obama in 2008. It’s rated as R+13 by the Cook Political Report.

Geography: The Fourth District is the state’s largest district in terms of area. It has a low population density and a distinctly rural character, though the suburban Nashville portion is growing. The district stretches across two time zones, five of the state’s eight television markets and five of the state’s nine radio markets.

TN-03 (OPEN – Rep. Zach Wamp, R)

Republican Rep. Zach Wamp was first elected to represent the East Tennessee-based Third District in the Republican Revolution of 1994. On January 5, 2009, Wamp announced that he would not seek re-election to his congressional seat and would be running for Governor of Tennessee.

Chuck Fleischmann won tonight’s 11-way primary to replace Wamp with 30% of the vote. Fleischmann was endorsed by Gov. Mike Huckabee.

After initially making noise about contesting this seat despite its GOP ancestry and promoting former ex-Bredesen official Paula Flowers, Democrats gave up on this pipe dream and Flowers dropped out. The Cook Political Report rates this district as “Safe Republican.”

Chuck Fleishmann is an attorney who owns a small firm in Chattanooga with his wife. His strong background and experience combined with his fiscal and social conservative views represent the hard-working families of Tennessee’s Third District.

History: The Third District has remained more or less the same since the 1850s and is on the dividing line between counties and towns that favored or opposed Southern secession in the Civil War. Voters in the district have voted predominately Republican since the district was created. McCain swept this district with a 62-37 margin in 2008. It’s rated as R+13 by the Cook Political Report.

Geography: The Third District consists of a strip stretching from north to south in the eastern part of the state. It includes the cities of Chattanooga, Oak Ridge, and Cleveland.

RESULTS:

The following are the unofficial results from Thursday’s primary election in Tennessee. These results are UNOFFICIAL AND INCOMPLETE until certified by the Tennessee Secretary of State.

TN-08 (GOP primary)
92.4% Precincts Reporting:
Fincher 49% – Winner
Flinn 24%
Kirkland 24%

TN-06 (GOP primary)
100.0% Precincts Reporting:
Black 30.9% – Winner
Zelenik 29.8%
Tracy 29.8%

TN-04 (GOP primary)
98.6% Precincts Reporting:
DesJarlais 37% – Winner
Bailey 27%

TN-03 (GOP primary)
Precincts Reporting:
99.6% Precincts Reports:
Fleishmann 30% – Winner
Smith 28%