Support among likely voters for U.S. Rep. Steve
Kagen, D-Appleton, and Republican challenger Reid
Ribble appears to be about even in the 8th
Congressional District race, a poll showed
Wednesday.
The survey, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland on
behalf of the Washington, D.C., publication The Hill,
found Ribble holding a one-percentage point lead
to Kagen, 45-44. The lead is well within the margin
of error of 4.8 percentage points.
It is the first independent polling done in the
northeastern Wisconsin congressional district race,
one of 42 key toss-ups that will determine which
party will control the House after the midterm
elections.
Kagen and Ribble’s campaigns were cautious in
their interpretation of the poll.
“We’re always glad to see a positive poll, but we
know this is going to be a very close race and that
Congressman Kagen will stop at nothing in these
final two weeks to hang on to power,” said Brandon
Moody, Ribble campaign manager, in a statement.
Allison Jaslow, spokeswoman for the Kagen
campaign, said the only survey that matters is the
one that will register on Nov. 2.
“And I assure you that no campaign will work harder
(than ours) until they (polling sites) close,” she said
in a statement.
Penn Schoen Berland queried 415 likely voters from
Oct. 12 to 14 about their party affiliation, views on
President Obama and Congress, and leanings on
domestic issues.
There are plenty of undecided voters in the district:
10 percent.
The poll contained some bad news for Kagen,
whose favorability rating although the same as
Ribble’s — 44 percent — was slightly lower than his
unfavorability rating, at 45 percent.
Twelve percent said they were not familiar with
Ribble. His unfavorability rating was 38 percent,
suggesting people are still learning about him, said
Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the
University of Wisconsin-Madison and polling
expert.
“Ribble has a bit of an upside on both sides with
those more undecided, but he’s also faced with the
last two weeks of a campaign in which Mr. Kagen
will not be saying nice things about him,” Franklin
said. “So it’s going to be hard for him to raise his
favorability much.”
Asked to choose how to tackle the national deficit,
82 percent of respondents chose cutting
government spending, 10 percent chose raising
taxes and 8 percent did not know.
Neither campaign has publicly shared internal
numbers.
The last time there was any fanfare over a poll was
in August. The Ribble campaign at that time touted a
survey for the conservative think-tank American
Action Forum that showed him with a 10
percentage-point advantage over Kagen, 49-39.
That poll was done by Ayres, McHenry & Associates,
a firm known for its work with GOP candidates.
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