Oliverio, McKinley locked in horse race

The Hill says Democrat Michael Oliverio has a 3 point lead over Republican David McKinley for the 1st District while 16 percent of respondents were undecided. The telephone poll of 405 likely voters conducted from Oct. 2 to Oct. 7 has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

In September, Public Opinion Strategies said its poll showed McKinley behind the Morgantown insurance consultant 41 percent to 36 percent. Immediately after the Aug. 28 special primary election, the Oliverio campaign released its poll by Hamilton Campaigns that said Oilverio was ahead of McKinley 52 percent to 36 percent.

West Virginia’s 1st District is one of only two congressional districts polled by The Hill where Democrats were leading. However, the poll showed most independents favored McKinley over Oliverio, 48 percent to 28 percent, and 20 percent of independents remained undecided.

“As voters understand that Mike Oliverio supports Obama government-run health care and that David McKinley will repeal it and replace it, McKinley wins,” said McKinley spokesman Steve Cohen.

Asked about whether internal polling by the campaign jibes with the other polls, Cohen referred to his statement.

However, he pointed to electionprojections.com, which said Mckinley wins with a .1 percent margin, and the Cook and Rothenberg political reports that say the election is a toss up. Electionprojections.com analyzes other polls.

“We have a significantly higher lead in our internal polls than what The Hill has,” Oliverio spokesman Randy Coleman said. “One thing everyone agrees on is that Mike Oliverio is in the lead in this race. That is why David McKinley has been so desperate to take hundreds of thousands of dollars from the coal-killing ethanol industry.”

Other data gleaned from The Hill poll showed 19 percent of Republicans like Oliverio and 17 percent of Democrats like McKinley.

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