Cook: 12 Dem incumbents are underdogs
The Cook Political Report on Friday downgraded the status of 12 Democratic incumbents to “Lean Republican,” a highly unusual move for the nonpartisan handicapping publication.
Cook moved the dozen Democrats from the “Toss Up” category to “Lean Republican,” signaling that the seats had moved from competitive races where either party has a good chance of winning to competitive races in which the GOP has an advantage.
In addition, there are nine Democratic-held open seats that are listed as either Lean Republican or worse, “Likely Republican.”
By comparison, just one GOP incumbent, Louisiana Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao, and one GOP-held open seat, Delaware’s at large district, are rated as “Lean” or “Likely Democratic.” Cao was also downgraded Friday along with the 12 Democrats.
“Longtime readers will observe that while we rarely rate unindicted incumbents worse than a Toss Up to win reelection, today we are moving 13 incumbents, 12 Democrats and one Republican, into the opposite party’s column to reflect their underdog status,” wrote Cook’s House Editor David Wasserman. “It’s not that these endangered members’ prospects have suddenly taken a turn for the worse, or even deteriorated gradually over the last several months. Most of these members have trailed all year, and it’s simply exceedingly rare to see a candidate in their position in October come back to win reelection, especially now that early voting will be underway in many states very soon.”
The group of Democrats whose seats are now rated leaning Republican is composed almost entirely of freshmen legislators, including Ohio Reps. Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kilroy, Virginia Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye, Pennsylvania Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Illinois Rep. Deborah Halvorson, Florida Reps. Alan Grayson and Suzanne Kosmas, Colorado Rep. Betsy Markey and Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick.
Texas Rep. Chet Edwards, an Appropriations Committee cardinal who has served 10 terms, is also now rated as an underdog, as is second-term Wisconsin Rep. Steve Kagen.
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