Sessions predicts larger GOP majority

Rep. Pete Sessions still sounds like he’s on a 2010 high when he talks up his vision of the House following the 2012 elections: “Take our half of the [House] floor and make it standing room only. Make the sergeant-at-arms bring in folding chairs.”

It’s bullish, perhaps even cocky, for the man heading up the National Republican Congressional Committee to be predicting even larger GOP gains after the party’s historic 63-seat sweep last year. Critics might say that Sessions should have a more modest mission: protecting the massive freshman class of 87 Republicans, some of whom are already being targeted by Democrats who want their seats back in 2012.

But Sessions isn’t one for modest goals. He was among the first Republicans who laid out a plan in early 2009 to take back the House, and now he sees a chance for the GOP to expand on its largest majority since 1948.

“We will have another swing our way in 2012. We understand why the American public elected us, and we will deliver,” Sessions told POLITICO. “We did [last year] what no one has done before.”

But his brash talk might not be all that over the top, considering certain Republican advantages: the likely retention of most of their incumbent seats, the financial resources to pay bills, rematches of missed opportunities from 2010 and redistricting control in many states.

Sessions emphasized, “We have a good team that works together,” including more than 70 GOP incumbents who played an active role in the NRCC in the past cycle. He’ll need those freshman majority-makers to be much more involved in the national campaign this time around — even though some of them ran on a more independent, anti-establishment platform in 2010.

One reason that Sessions will need the help from freshmen is that his two chief partners during the past cycle — Reps. John Boehner of Ohio and Greg Walden of Oregon — will have less time for campaign work. Boehner, as the new speaker, will certainly have a national role and will be less involved in the day-to-day minutia. And Walden has been tapped as chairman of the Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications, Technology and the Internet, taking up more of his time.

“I will probably not be as active as in the past. But, as I have discussed with Pete, I know what to look for,” Walden said.

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With Walden, Sessions will co-chair the NRCC’s Patriot Program, which is designed to protect potentially vulnerable GOP incumbents. Following up on their success last year — when they lost only three GOP-held seats of the nearly 20 that were identified as prime Democratic targets — Walden said, “the Patriot Program makes sure that our incumbents are as strong as they can be” and permits Republicans to focus more attention on Democratic-held seats.

Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), whose campaign is cited as a textbook case for a GOP campaign in a swing district, said the NRCC’s Patriot Program acts as “the extra set of hands that guide you. … They sat me down early to buck me up and get me focused on the campaign.” Dent was a prime Democratic target, but in November he won handily, 54 percent to 39 percent.

Assuming they do their job right, many freshmen are expected to easily win reelection next year. Sessions plans to tap many of them for fundraising and other NRCC tasks. “We have a whole lot more members to whom we have turned things. They will give, not take.”

On the money front, the NRCC is starting the cycle in a better position than the DCCC, which has depleted ranks and a nearly $20 million debt from loans that it took to rescue embattled incumbents last year. The NRCC, by contrast, borrowed only $12 million in the closing weeks of the campaign and has nearly $5 million in cash reserves.

Republican leaders are also expanding their electoral map, pointing out that they fell short in at least a dozen districts they saw as winnable. Citing Democratic-held seats in North Carolina, for example, Sessions said, “We didn’t win every place where we thought we could have.”

Republicans are also looking at districts won by former President George W. Bush in 2004 as targets. While Democrats point out that 61 House Republicans now hold seats in districts that Obama won in 2008, GOP analysts counter that 47 of those districts were won by Bush in 2004.

The final push in Republicans’ effort to expand their ground in 2012 will come through redistricting. The decennial redrawing of lines will affect next year’s elections in all but the seven states that have a single district. Although some of those changes will be modest tinkering, Republicans are counting on a big boost — not least because 193 districts are in states where the process will be controlled by Republicans, compared with only 44 in Democratic-controlled states.

In addition, 103 districts are in states where the governor and legislatures are split between both parties, and outside commissions will draw 88 new districts — including in California and New Jersey.

Republican control of redistricting in many states could give House GOP members tactical advantages on timing and possible court challenges, for example. Sessions, who has been deeply involved in redistricting in his home state of Texas, has planned for two years with NRCC Redistricting Vice Chairman Lynn Westmoreland of Georgia on how to enhance nationwide gains.

“Redistricting is an opportunity and a challenge [for both parties]. But it’s more of an opportunity for us,” Walden said. “You drill down as deep as you can to plan for population changes as much as you can. We will explore factors such as age, demographics, job changes and overall population patterns.”

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