NRCC MEMO: ARIZONA’S FIRST DISTRICT
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLLING DIRECTOR BROCK MCCLEARY
DATE: OCTOBER 8, 2012
SUBJECT: ARIZONA’S FIRST DISTRICT
Iraq veteran Jonathan Paton is on the rise according to the results of a poll conducted by the NRCC in Arizona’s 1stDistrict. Paton is benefitting from an advertising blitz in the last two weeks that has helped him move ahead of former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick. As the default incumbent in the race, Kirkpatrick can ill afford to fall behind when undecided voters are likely to break for the challenger.
| Congressional Ballot: | |
| Jonathan Paton |
50% |
| Ann Kirkpatrick |
45% |
| Undecided |
5% |
Voters are deadlocked 46-46% on whether they prefer a Republican or Democrat to represent them in Congress. Paton’s 50% on the ballot demonstrates support for him that goes beyond just base voters.
| Generic Congressional Ballot: | |
| Republican |
46% |
| Democratic |
46% |
| Undecided |
8% |
At the top of the ticket, a post-debate bounce is evident for Governor Romney.
| Presidential Ballot: | |
| Mitt Romney |
51% |
| Barack Obama |
46% |
| Undecided |
3% |
The interactive voice response (IVR) survey was conducted by the NRCC on October 4th with a sample size of 501 respondents and a margin of error +/-4.3%. The party registration breakdown for the sample was:
| Sample by party: | |
| Democrats |
44% |
| Republican |
32% |
| Independents |
23% |
| Other |
1% |