Polling Memo: Is Obama Having Base Problems? Part 2
Obama & His Base: Part 2
In the wake of CNN’s latest data showing an un-ignorable drop in President Obama’s ratings over the past month, yesterday we highlighted the fact that “the overall decline in [the President’s] approval rating was partially fueled by a plunge in support from younger Americans, a huge base of Obama’s support.”1
What headlines have missed however, is some clear movement against the President among another large part of his base—women.
Let’s look.
In May, 61% of women saw President Obama as honest and trustworthy. Only 39% believed he was not. Today, one month later, this number has dropped to 53% while those believing the opposite has jumped to 46%. That’s a 15 point swing against Obama in terms of him being honest and trustworthy.
When thinking about Obama’s ability to manage the government effectively, in May, 55-44, women said this applied to the President. Fast forward a month and women are split at 50% with half saying this does not apply to Obama. Women are then asked whether Obama “generally agrees with your views on the size and power of the government.” Currently, Obama sits upside-down 48-51 among women with the majority saying he does not. Flashback to May and this number was 53-46, a net negative movement of 10 points.
Lastly, women are asked if the following statement applies to President Obama: “Is not a typical politician.” In May, Obama held a double digit lead at +14 percent, with 56% of women saying the President is not a typical politician. Today, that margin has shrunk to a mere 4 points with 52% still saying Obama is not a typical politician and a full 48% saying he is.
POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN
DATE: Conducted 5/17-18/2013
SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adult Americans; MoE ±3.0%
SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/20/rel6b-1.pdf
POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN
DATE: Conducted 6/11-13/2013
SAMPLE: Sampled 1,014 Adult Americans; MoE ±3.0%
SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/06/17/rel7a.pdf
1 http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/17/politics/obama-poll-decline/index.html
More base problems for Obama as women swing 15pts against Prez in terms of honesty. http://t.co/ZOFRhbWfGv #tcot
— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) June 20, 2013