NRCC Memo: Ohio Primary Results

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: NRCC Political and NRCC Communications

DATE: MAY 6, 2014

SUBJECT: Ohio Primary results

With President Obama’s approval ratings continuing to tank nationwide, Reps. Bill Johnson and Dave Joyce are in a strong position to carry both of their districts this November. In both OH-06 and OH-14, President Obama lost to Mitt Romney and received less than 50% of the vote in both districts. Since the 2012 election, President Obama’s numbers have continued to decline in the state and Democrat candidates across the country have tried to distance themselves from his policies. Unfortunately, national Democrats have made it impossible to escape the bad policies coming out of Washington.

Ohioans are looking for a check and balance to the out of control government overreach by President Obama and Nancy Pelosi. Republicans are providing responsible leadership by fighting Washington’s burdensome mandates, championing efforts to boost American energy production and creating a better environment for private-sector job growth and Ohioans are responding to their idea of a better future for America.

If Democrats were to have any hope of winning the House, they would have to demonstrate they can be competitive in the Buckeye State which has been called the epicenter of American politics.

INCUMBENTS

OH-06: Rep. Bill Johnson, R vs. Jennifer Garrison, D

Retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Bill Johnson will square off against former state Rep. Jennifer Garrison who has run a lackluster campaign, having just $238k in the bank at the end of the first quarter. Cook Political Reports says Democrats will have “a very uphill fight” to win this district they lost in 2012, even though Obama won the state. In Congress, Rep. Bill Johnson has earned a reputation as a commonsense leader who has lead the fight against Obama’s War on Coal and ObamaCare, which is why he defeated former Rep. Charlie Wilson, 50 percent to 45 percent in 2012.

Geography: PVI: R+8; Romney 55.3%; Obama 42.7%. The 6^th District runs along the Southeast border of Ohio but has become an increasingly Republican stronghold. Several Democrat precincts near Youngstown and the liberal college town of Athens were removed and replaced with reliably Republican territory near Zanesville to the west. Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely Republican, and Rothenberg rates it as Republican Favored.  

Resources: As of the 1^st quarter, Johnson had $961K COH compared to Garrison’s paltry $238K COH.

OH-14: Rep. Dave Joyce, R vs. Michael Wager, D

Congressman Dave Joyce has been a strong independent voice for Ohio families during his first year in Washington. Bringing his commonsense approach to Congress, Joyce has been a leading advocate for eastern Ohio and was able pass legislation that will increase Great Lakes funding which is so important to the region.

According to the Rothenberg Political Report, even Democrat strategist admit that Wager “needs to mount a stronger campaign to knock off the incumbent.” While Wager was a top fundraiser for Sherrod Brown, Wager’s fundraising ability has been abysmal. To make matters worse, Wager has also tied himself to the most extreme liberal policies of the Democrat Party – whether it’s his support of ObamaCare or his desire to see Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, Wager has made himself an extremist in this moderate Ohio district.

Geography: PVI: R+4; Romney 51%; Obama 47.6%. Counties within the 14^th District: Ashtabula, Lake, Geauga, eastern Cuyahoga, northern Trumbull, northern Portage, and northeastern Summit.Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely Republican, and Rothenberg rates it as Lean Republican. 

Resources:As of the end of the 1^st quarter, Joyce has a huge fundraising lead over Wager. Joyce has $1.072 million COH compared to Wager’s $485K COH.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Ohio.  These results are unofficial and incomplete.

*Indicates Winner determined by AP