NRCC Memo: Michigan Primary Results

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS

DATE: AUGUST 5, 2014

SUBJECT: MICHIGAN PRIMARY RESULTS

Democrats in Michigan have had little to celebrate over the years and that trend will surely continue looking ahead to the November midterm election. Once again Democrats have been unsuccessful in recruiting top-tier candidates – from the top of the ticket on down – and Republicans head into the fall looking stronger than ever. Throughout the country President Obama and Nancy Pelosi continue to be a drag on congressional Democrats. While many chose to run away from their past support of the failed policies of the current administration, the Democrats running for Congress in Michigan are tying themselves to failed policies like ObamaCare and the toxic former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. This short-sighted move to appeal to their base will haunt them long-term as they find themselves coming up short this fall.

INCUMBENT

MI-01: Dr. Dan Benishek, R vs. Jerry Cannon, D

This district in Northern Michigan has continually leaned more Republican in the past few elections. Dr. Dan Benishek goes into the upcoming elections stronger than ever -from fundraising totals, to ground game being implemented, and with television ads already running, Dr. Dan has put himself in a position to win resoundingly this fall.

In years past, national Democrats have failed to recruit a qualified candidate to run for this seat. This year is no different with Jerry Cannon. Unfortunately for Democrats, Cannon’s candidacy and ability to raise money have been lackluster. Dr. Dan outraised Cannon in the 2^nd Quarter and has a large cash on hand advantage – $942,000 to Cannon’s $336,000.

The make-up of the district also favors Republicans in the fall. President Bush carried it by substantial margins, winning with 55 percent of the vote in 2004. Despite the fact that John McCain did not compete in Michigan, Obama barely managed to edge out a victory here in 2008. Since then, the new district has become about one point more Republican in redistricting with the addition of several right-leaning areas around Traverse City. Mitt Romney won the new 1^st District after redistricting by 53% to 45%.

The Democrats will surely tout Jerry Cannon as an improvement to political dud Gary McDowell of the last two cycles. The fact of the matter is, Jerry Cannon has already come out in strong support of ObamaCare which has a dismal approval ratings in the 1^st District. Cannon has also touted the help he has received from Nancy Pelosi and Washington Democrats – when you couple that with his support of ObamaCare you have a lethal cocktail in a district Romney won by 8 points.

Dr. Dan’s passion has been doing what’s right and fighting for Northern Michigan families. Whether it’s sponsoring  military sexual assault legislation with Sen. Gillibrand or being a leader on the VA scandal and ensuring the necessary funding was there to improve the VA for our veterans – the doctor has been a leader in Congress and a true advocate for Northern Michigan families.

Geography: PVI: R+4; The Cook Political Report rates this race as Lean Republican and The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as Toss Up/Tilt Republican. The district covers the Upper Peninsula and the northern part of the Lower Peninsula.

MI-07: Tim Walberg, R vs. Pam Byrnes, D

Washington political handicappers have all agreed that Michigan’s 7^th Congressional District will remain in GOP hands after this fall’s election. Congressman Tim Walberg has been a strong representative of the folks in his district and has worked tirelessly to ensure their voices are heard in Washington.

Democrats have had yet another recruitment failure with Pam Byrnes who was a state legislator under Governor Jennifer Granholm and was responsible for passing some of the most unpopular bills in Michigan’s history. Byrnes voted for a $1.35 billion tax hike package, which was one of the largest in Michigan’s history, which also raised the state income tax 11.5% and expanded the 6% sales tax to 23 new services. On top of Byrnes deplorable legislative record under the unpopular Granholm, Byrnes also said she considers repealing ObamaCare a waste of time which will be unpopular in a district that Mitt Romney won in 2012.

Geography: PVI: R+3; The Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely Republican and The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as Republican Favored. This district includes Eaton, Jackson Washtenaw, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe counties.

OPEN SEATS

MI-04: John Moolenaar, R vs. Jeff Holmes, D

Michigan’s 4^th Congressional District is a solid Republican seat. Held by Congressman Dave Camp for 21 years, this district will continue to be in Republican hands with John Moolenaar.

Geography: PVI: R+5; The Cook Political Report rates this race as Solid Republican and The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as Safe Republican.

MI-08: Mike Bishop, R vs. Eric Schertzing, D

The 8^th Congressional District has been strongly in Republican hands since the election of Mike Rogers in 2000. This year will be no different with Mike Bishop on the ballot against what looks to be national Democrat’s 2^nd choice candidate Eric Schertzing. The AP has yet to call the 8th District race for the Democrats.

After Barb Bynum declined to run, which was seen as a huge failure for Democrats, Pelosi’s campaign arm in Washington, D.C. was stuck with what looks to be the Democrat nominee Ingham County Treasurer Schertzing.

Mike Bishop has been a strong leader fighting for portions of this district in the state legislature and has strong name ID thanks to a statewide race in 2010. Known for his fiscal conservatism and ability to work across the aisle, Bishop will be a good fit for this district.

While Democrats will tout this as a pick-up opportunity, Bishops’ ability to raise money, his strong name recognition in the district, his endorsement from Congressman Mike Rogers and the current climate – Democrats will come up short this November.

Geography: PVI: R+4; The Cook Political Report rates this race as Lean Republican and The Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as Lean Republican. This district covers Ingham, Livingston, and parts of Oakland counties.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Michigan. These results are unofficial and incomplete..