NRCC MEMO: ARIZONA PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL and NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: AUGUST 31, 2016
SUBJECT: ARIZONA PRIMARY RESULTS
Republicans have an opportunity to go on offense in Arizona’s 1st District seat left open by Ann Kirkpatrick while national Democrats have all but given up competing in the 2nd District. Martha McSally’s stellar first term has made her one of the most formidable incumbents anywhere in the country and Democrats have an underwhelming candidate in Matt Heinz.
AZ-01: Paul Babeu, R vs. Tom O’Halleran, D
With Ann Kirkpatrick leaving the 1st District seat open to run for Senate, this race becomes a solid pick up opportunity for the GOP. Sheriff Paul Babeu’s service as a lawman and in the Army National Guard gives him invaluable experience in the fight to keep Arizona families safe. At a time when America is facing threats at home and abroad, Sheriff Babeu’s efforts to strengthen and protect his community make him the clear choice for 1st District voters.
Tom O’Halleran’s record is out of step with the 1st District. While serving in the state legislature, O’Halleran demanded a pay raise for lawmakers while going on to support tax increases and oppose tax cuts for Arizona families and businesses. Additionally, O’Halleran has aligned himself with far-left environmentalists who support burdensome EPA regulations that would kill Arizona jobs and raise energy prices on small businesses and ranchers. And even after seeing the failures of Obamacare, O’Halleran supports the law that has forced thousands off their health insurance plans and could leave entire swaths of the state without insurance. O’Halleran enters the general election with far less name ID and nearly $900,000 less in the bank than Ann Kirkpatrick had at this time in 2014. With Republican registration surging across the state, this Romney/McCain/Bush seat becomes a ripe pick-up opportunity for the GOP.
Overview: PVI: R+4; Romney 50.4% – Obama 47.9%; both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate this race as “Toss Up.”
AZ-02: Martha McSally, R vs. Matt Heinz, D
Due to Martha McSally’s stellar first term in office, national Democrats have all but abandoned any hopes of competing in Arizona’s 2nd District. Whether it is her successful efforts to keep the A-10 flying or her multiple legislative victories, McSally has proven to be an effective fighter who knows how to get results for her constituents. McSally also has significant structural advantages over her Democratic opponent, with an astounding $2 million cash on hand and a full month of television ads already on the air. By every conceivable metric Martha McSally is miles ahead of her opponent and well-positioned to retain her seat in November.
With two weak candidates in this race, Democrats have been largely quiet about their prospects in the 2nd District. The Democrat nominee Matt Heinz is tainted by his key role in rolling out Obamacare, a law that has forced thousands off their insurance plans and could leave swaths of the state without any insurance options. Heinz, like his fellow Democrat Tom O’Halleran, has been the worst kind of hypocrite: a staunch proponent of tax increases on Arizona businesses and families while also wanting to increase his taxpayer funded salary as a state legislator. On national security issues, Heinz is badly outmatched, recently saying that the fight against ISIS was going “fairly well.” Simply put, Heinz has shown little ability to compete with McSally, running a lackluster campaign and sporting just $290,000 cash in the bank.
Overview: PVI: R+3; Romney 50% – Obama 48%; the Cook Political Report rates this race as “Lean Republican” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rates this race as “Republican Favored.”
STATEWIDE ROUNDUP
The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Arizona.
*Indicates Winner determined by AP
AZ-01 – GOP
277 of 280 Precincts Reporting (99%)
Paul Babeu* (32%)
Gary Kiehne (23%)
Wendy Rogers (22%)
Ken Bennett (16%)
David Gowan (4%)
Shawn Redd (3%)
AZ-01 – DEM
277 of 280 Precincts Reporting (99%)
Tom O’Halleran* (59%)
Miguel Olivas (41%)
AZ-02 – GOP
Martha McSally* Uncontested
AZ-02 – DEM
194 of 194 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Matt Heinz* (53%)
Victoria Steele (47%)