Not your grandfather’s GOP
One thing Republicans and Joe Biden agree on: This isn’t your grandfather’s GOP.
In fact, The Washington Post reports “the 2022 midterms could make the GOP the most diverse it has ever been.”
In case you missed it…
The 2022 midterms could make the GOP the most diverse it has ever been
Henry Olsen
The Washington Post
April 29, 2022
2020 was a great year for diversity in the GOP, with House Republicans welcoming record numbers of female and minority members to their ranks. 2022 is shaping up to be even better. Women and minorities make up large numbers of candidates in potential swing seats. This, not blind Trumpism, is the GOP’s future.
One need only glance at the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of high-performing candidates, the “Young Guns” program, to see who’s in the pipeline. Five of the 16 Young Guns are women, two are Black men and one is a Hispanic man. All are running in seats that should go Republican this fall, given current poll numbers. Adding these members to the Republican caucus would make the 2023 House GOP the most diverse it has ever been.
What’s really exciting are the diverse candidates percolating up in the next tiers of races. Twenty-six of the 67 people in the NRCC’s second tier of candidates, “On the Radar,” are either female or a minority. Some of these candidates are running in contested primaries, and others are running in difficult seats, so not all are assured of coming to Washington. But it’s likely a few will.
There are plenty of other diverse candidates running in safe or swing seats who have not yet made the NRCC’s list. Three are on primary ballots next Tuesday, with state Sen. Theresa Gavarone and conservative commentator Madison Gesiotto Gilbert vying for the party’s nomination in two Ohio congressional seats and former state senator Erin Houchin running for Indiana’s safely red 9th Congressional District. Others, such as Sarah Palin in Alaska, will face primary voters later this summer. All together, it’s possible as many as 50 women and 20 Black, Hispanic or Asian candidates will become Republican House members next year.
This trend extends to Senate candidates, as well. Katie Boyd Britt is running a strong race in Alabama, while Donald Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka could prevail against Alaska incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski. Herschel Walker will almost surely be the nominee to take on Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock in Georgia, a contest that will be among the most harshly fought in the nation. Rep. Vicky Hartzler is also running a strong race to succeed retiring Sen. Roy Blunt in Missouri and could be the person who beats disgraced former governor Eric Greitens in the August primary.
Meanwhile, Kathy Barnette, who is Black, has moved into third place in the vicious Pennsylvania GOP race. The two front-runners — David McCormick and Mehmet Oz — are both recent arrivals in the state and are spending millions of dollars bashing each other on television. It’s entirely possible that a plurality of Republicans will choose Barnette in a “plague on both your houses” move. That would give her a solid chance at winning the swing state in what looks to be an excellent Republican year.
Even gubernatorial races exhibit this trend. The two front-runners in Arizona’s GOP race — Trump-endorsed Kari Lake and establishment conservative Karrin Taylor Robson — are women. Former lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch is the GOP primary front-runner in the perennial swing state of Wisconsin, where Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers claims the nation’s lowest job approval rating among governors up for election this year. Alabama incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey is chasing away challenges from the right by broadcasting an ad showing her skills at the shooting range. But when it comes to tough Southern women, no one beats former Trump press secretary Sarah Sanders, on track to become Arkansas’s next governor.
This trend is happening because women and minorities have finally built up the political capital to bid for high office. There have always been female and minority Republican legislators, but for a variety of reasons, they have emerged more slowly than among Democrats. Party bigwigs knew that if they did not support more of these candidacies, they would risk losing support among the nation’s growing female and minority voter base. The combination of these developments is good news for these candidates and will likely encourage even more ambitious women and minorities to see if they can have a political future in the GOP.
Democrats have long played the race and gender cards against Republicans, confident that the White male party leadership would be unable to respond effectively. Those cards will be harder to play and easier to rebut as Republican members and party leaders become more diverse.
President Bill Clinton famously said he wanted a diverse Cabinet that looks like America. The emerging Republican majority will both look and think like Americans. That combination will be hard to beat.