CRYSTAL BALL: Texas races move toward GOP

Sabato’s Crystal Ball writes that Mayra Flores’ historic win in TX-34 “is an indication that the big shift toward Republicans that we saw in South Texas in 2020 is enduring and even sharpening down-ballot.”

As a result, Crystal Ball has moved TX-34’s race rating from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” for the November election. 

TX-15 moves from “Leans Republican” to “Likely Republican.” 

NRCC COMMENT: “Democrats took South Texas for granted for too long. Texans are voting Republican because they’re tired of Democrat leadership that caused a never-ending border crisis and record-high inflation.”  — NRCC Spokeswoman Torunn Sinclair