Politico Playbook: Why the GOP is suddenly optimistic about the House

March 4, 2024

Last week had House Democrats reaching for the Xanax. Take a look why:

In case you missed it…

Playbook: Why the GOP is suddenly optimistic about the House
POLITICO
Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels
March 3, 2024
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/03/03/why-the-gop-is-suddenly-optimistic-about-the-house-00144586?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f109-dd93-ad7f-f90d64e80000&nlid=630318

RICHARD HUDSON’S GOOD NEWS — There’s naturally been a ton of focus lately on the race for the White House. This morning, we pivot to a series of developments across the country that will impact the battle for control of the House.

The assumption on Capitol Hill among Democrats — and even a bunch of Republicans, privately — has been that the lower chamber is basically lost for the GOP. You can see it in the number of senior Republicans who have decided to call it quits and retire despite their powerful positions on committees.

Add that to Trump cementing his place as the party’s all-but-official nominee, and you can see the difficult road ahead: While most GOP lawmakers are lining up behind the former president, fears that Trump will drag down Republican candidates elsewhere on the ballot remain prevalent.

And yet this weekend, NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.) has some reasons to hope, due to a series of news stories …

1. MAJEWSKI OUT — Just two weeks ahead of Ohio’s March 19 primary, embattled GOP candidate J.R. MAJEWSKI announced yesterday afternoon that he’s bowing out of the race to take on Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR.

Majewaki, who lost to Kaptur by double-digits in 2022, has been facing pressure to drop out since he used a slur to belittle people with developmental disabilities who compete in the Special Olympics. That’s atop the preexisting knock on Majewski that he lied about serving in combat in Afghanistan, which created a huge problem for him last time around.

The development is music to Hudson’s ears. Ohio’s ninth district, as our colleague Ally Mutnick writes, is one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities — one of just five Dem-held seats that Trump carried in 2020.

Hudson and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON have been working behind the scenes to pressure Majewski out of the race — including by directly appealing to Trump for help during a recent visit at Mar-a-Lago. Majewski confirmed to Ally that he’s been in touch with Trump’s team — though while announcing his suspended campaign on X yesterday, he insisted Trump didn’t tell him to drop out.

“While I know I would win, and have a great shot in the general election now that my record was cleared, it is inevitable that the Deep State will do whatever it takes to fight against me,” Majewski said. His exit leaves Republicans with two potential candidates — both whom they consider more formidable than Majewski: former state Rep. CRAIG RIEDEL and state Rep. DEREK MERRIN.

2. DEMS’ WISCONSIN MAKEOVER ON HOLD — A few hundred miles west, the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday rejected an 11th-hour Democratic push to change the state’s congressional map ahead of November.

The push for a new map threatened to be bad news for Republicans, who hold six of the state’s eight congressional seats. And it could have made reelection for Reps. BRYAN STEIL and DERRICK VAN ORDEN a heavier climb; indeed, the DCCC had already made Steil a top target, anticipating a changed map.

But on Friday, the state Supreme Court declined to revisit the issue, ensuring that the existing map, not a new one, will be used for the state’s congressional races in 2024.

The decision is a blow for Dems’ chief elections legal brain, MARC ELIAS, who championed the move and was tweeting confidently about his efforts just a few days ago. After the party won the state Supreme Court race last year with the election of liberal justice JANET PROTASIEWICZ, Democrats were bullish that they’d be successful in this endeavor — until Protasiewicz essentially recused herself from the matter. More from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

Now, Republicans are sighing relief that the existing map will remain in place. This morning, the NRCC expressed confidence to Playbook that they’ll now retain both Steil and Van Orden’s seats this fall.

3. DEM INFIGHTING THREATENS CALIFORNIA — Traveling further west again, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman has new reporting from California about how Democrats are warring amongst each other in Tuesday’s primary — and how the result could impact their efforts to flip the House.

Reporting from the Bakersfield area — KEVIN McCARTHY’s home base — and beyond, Weisman goes deep into the contentious race to challenge Rep. DAVID VALADAO (R-Calif.), one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, whose seat President JOE BIDEN carried by 13 points.

While it’d typically be an easy pick for Dems, Weisman says the battle between Democratic candidates “has become so personal that some in the party fear they could divide the vote” and lead to two Republicans qualifying for the November ballot, locking out Democrats entirely in the jungle primary system. (Remember: California has a so-called “jungle primary” system, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general, regardless of party affiliation.)

One interesting nugget: The NRCC has “calculated that two-thirds of the battle for control of the House will occur in states largely untouched by the presidential election. With no boost from the presidential organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts, N.R.C.C. officials have set up 24 field offices — the most ever — figuring they are on their own in defending the G.O.P.’s razor-thin majority.”

And… damn important context: “The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has rated just 10 Republican seats as tossups, nine of them in states with Democratic governors .… Democrats would need five seats to win control of the House .… With so few opportunities, an unforced error taking Democrats out of play in Mr. Valadao’s district would loom large.”

4. DEMS’ NEW YORK LETDOWN? — The above stories come as Republicans are sighing relief that Democrats didn’t screw with them as much as they thought they would in New York. In the home state of HAKEEM JEFFRIES — who’d become speaker if Dems flip the House — Democrats wanted to press their advantage as much as possible in new congressional maps.

And they certainly got some wins. The pushed the 22nd district around Syracuse, which GOP Rep. BRANDON WILLIAMS barely won in 2022, further into the Dem category. Ditto with newly elected Democratic Rep. TOM SUOZZI’s district, which became slightly bluer.

But Albany left the seats of NY GOP Reps. MIKE LAWLER, MARC MOLINARO, NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS and ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO largely intact, while making NICK LaLOTA’s seat redder.

“We feared the worst and we’re happy to say it didn’t happen,” the WSJ’s editorial board wrote of the decision, adding that Republicans “have avoided a political massacre.”