NEW POLL: Caraveo under water
New polling reveals vulnerable Yadira Caraveo in deep trouble, with Independents leaning toward Republicans. In a race that was decided by Independents in 2022, Caraveo’s ballot position and low name ID make CO-08 ripe for flipping in November.
Read more here and below.
Independents breaking for GOP in toss-up Colorado House district: Polling memo
Cami Mondeaux
April 24, 2024
Independent voters in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District are leaning toward a Republican challenger to incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO), according to a GOP polling memo showing the freshman lawmaker in a vulnerable position in one of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle.
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A majority of voters in the district are either unfamiliar with Caraveo or have no opinion of her, according to the internal survey commissioned by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Roughly 23% of voters report having a favorable view of Caraveo compared to 16% who responded negatively, according to the poll, first shared with the Washington Examiner. However, an overwhelming 61% say they have no opinion — putting Caraveo in a “dire position,” according to the internal memo.
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“This survey shows Yadira Caraveo under 40%. Caraveo’s ballot position and low name ID combine to create an exceedingly narrow pathway to reelection given the current environment.”
A growing number of independent voters also say they are more likely to back Republican challenger Gabe Evans in the general election. About 41% of independents say they’d back Evans compared to 35% for Caraveo, giving the Republican newcomer a 6-point advantage, according to the poll. Another 25% remain undecided.
That deficit could spell trouble for Caraveo, who won her seat by less than 1 point in 2022. The 8th District race is expected to be one of the most competitive in November, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating it as a “tossup.”
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Less than half (41%) of voters in the district approve of Biden’s job performance, the poll shows. That number falls even lower among independents, with only 38% of the voting bloc approving of the job he’s done as president.
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