New NRCC Memo: 6 months until Election Day
Yesterday marked six months until Election Day 2024, and the NRCC released a new memo describing what should cause a panic attack for extreme House Democrats.
See important excerpts of the memo below and read the full memo here.
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: NRCC Communications
DATE: May 5, 2024
RE: Six Months Until House Republicans Grow the Majority
For eighteen months, all eyes were fixated under the Capitol dome as the NRCC diligently laid the foundation for election season 2024. Now, six months from Election Day – as attention shifts from the Capitol to races outside the Beltway – Republicans have put ourselves in a strong position to grow our House majority.
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Environment:
President Biden remains an anchor tied around the ankles of House Democratic candidates. Biden’s image is 16 points underwater and his disapproval rating nears 60% according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. No president in modern history has ever begun their reelection campaign with such low approval ratings – period. Voters continue to give Biden failing grades on nearly every key issue as the border, crime, and cost of living crises continues to wreck families’ safety and security.
In poll after poll at the Congressional district level, one thing remains true: House Democratic incumbents fail to create separation from the top of the Democratic ticket or establish individual brands locally that would allow them to win in November.
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There is not a single NRCC-targeted Democrat in the country who has been willing to openly create separation from the historically unpopular head of their party. This is the most under-covered dynamic of the election cycle. We expect Democrats to wake up and furiously backpedal away from Biden in the fall. But, as demonstrated above, it will be too little, too late for Democrats to attempt a last-minute makeover. Voter impressions are already deeply pessimistic about the Democratic Party’s leadership of the country.
The Battleground:
The battle for the majority will be won or lost in just a handful of districts. After redistricting, the universe of competitive seats diminished dramatically.
Neither side can afford to allow a race to fall off the map, resulting in trench warfare in each individual swing seat. However, Republicans hold the higher ground.
Don’t take our word for it though. Top election handicappers agree: “the GOP is better-positioned to maintain control of the House.”
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Now six months from Election Day, both The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections note that there are an evenly divided number of “Toss-Up” seats for each political party. Yet House Republicans hold a key advantage: “Republicans need to win just two of the 10 Toss-up races to get to 218,” but “Democrats need to win nine of 10 Toss-up races to get to 218,” asInside Elections’ Nathan Gonzalez pronounced.Candidate Quality:
Democrats are in a doom loop when it comes to candidate recruitment. The same retread candidates who lost key races as Republicans seized the gavels last cycle are back running again this cycle. 13 of 20 of the DCCC’s supposed “top recruit” candidates in their “Red to Blue” program lost in 2022.
Meanwhile, Republicans have produced a diverse and engaging class of GOP candidate recruits who are running for Congress because they share a similar life stories and experiences as the people they are running to represent.
Fundraising:
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The NRCC established the “Million Dollar Mission” to cut the candidate-to-candidate spending deficit in half from the 2022 cycle.
The results so far are unprecedented:
- NRCC Patriots hold a $854,750 cash-on-hand average advantage over their Democratic challengers.
- NRCC Patriots Hold an average $118,000 cash-on-hand advantage over DCCC Frontliners.
- 19 of 24 NRCC Patriots hold a cash-on-hand advantage over their Democratic challengers.