BREAKING: New poll shows Tom Barrett leading Curtis Hertel by 7 points

July 17, 2024

A new poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections spells trouble for Curtis Hertel and Michigan Democrats up and down the ballot.

The independent poll shows Tom Barrett leading against extreme Democrat Curtis Hertel by 7 POINTS.

The poll also shows President Trump leading Biden 50-42 percent in a district Biden carried by 0.5 points.

“Curtis Hertel and Democrats across the midwestern swing districts are shaking in their boots knowing their extreme policies and Joe Biden are putting them in danger. With Tom Barrett on the ballot, this district is in a prime position to flip red.” — NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella

Read more from Inside Elections here or see excerpts below.

Michigan 7 Poll Underscores Challenges for Democrats
Inside Elections
Jacob Rubashkin
July 17, 2024

Republicans lead up and down the ticket in a crucial midwestern swing district, according to new polling conducted by Noble Predictive Insights for Inside Elections.

In Michigan’s 7th District, one of 10 seats nationwide rated a toss-up, Republican Tom Barrett holds a substantial advantage over Democrat Curtis Hertel, while former President Donald Trump has a similar lead over President Joe Biden. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who currently represents the district, is in a virtual tie in the Wolverine State’s senate race against former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.

The Lay of the Land

The 7th District sits in Central Michigan; anchored by state capital Lansing, the 7th also includes some suburbs northwest of Detroit.
In 2020, Biden would have carried the 7th by 0.5 points, 49.4 percent to 48.9 percent, making it one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation in that election. In 2016, Trump would have carried it by 3 points.

The district is often a bellwether for the state. In all three state-level elections in 2022, for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state, the statewide margin was within one point of the 7th District margin. That was also the case in the 2018 and 2020 Senate contests, which Democrats narrowly won.

The House Race

Slotkin’s Senate bid leaves the 7th open and vulnerable for Democrats, who have consolidated behind Hertel, a member of a local political family and a former top staffer to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Republicans are set to re-nominate Barrett, who lost to Slotkin by 5 points in 2022.

The NPI/Inside Elections poll found Barrett leading Hertel, 48-41 percent.

Barrett, perhaps because of his 2022 bid, had higher name identification than Hertel. Two-thirds of voters had an opinion about the Republican, with 32 percent viewing him favorably while 34 percent viewed him unfavorably. Hertel was viewed favorably by 18 percent of voters and unfavorably by 20 percent of voters.
Hertel did have an extensive financial advantage over Barrett at the end of June. The Democrat reported $3.1 million in campaign funds compared to $1.5 million for Barrett. And both parties’ outside groups have reserved $4.5 million each in TV time for the fall.

The Presidential Race

A similarly worrying sign for Democrats in the crucial battleground state is Trump’s strength in the district. Trump led Biden, 50-42 percent, in a head-to-head matchup.

Trump’s margin is cut in half when voters are given the option to select minor party candidates. In a five-person ballot test, Trump received 44 percent to Biden’s 40 percent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 8 percent, and Jill Stein’s 1 percent. Cornel West was included in the survey but received no support.

In a hypothetical matchup between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump led by a smaller margin, 50-44 percent. Harris’s minor overperformance, within the margin of error, is attributable to a more consolidated level of support among Democratic voters. She received support from 96 percent of Democrats while Biden captured 90 percent.

Biden’s job approval rating in the 7th clocked in at 42 percent, while his disapproval was 57 percent.

The district is evenly split on Trump, with 49 percent of respondents viewing him favorably while 50 percent view him unfavorably. Just 40 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Biden while 59 percent have an unfavorable view of the president. Kennedy is also unpopular, with just 33 percent of respondents holding a favorable view while 55 percent view him unfavorably.

While 77 percent of the district said they watched the debate, just 5 percent of those who did said they changed their minds after the contest.

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The Bottom Line

While Democratic incumbents across the House battlefield are outperforming the president in polling, open seats can be trickier to defend.

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