GOP gains among Latinos reshape the battlefield

July 31, 2025

Republican gains among Latino voters are completely reshaping the battlefield.

Just take a look at the Democrat Hispanic district shifts toward the GOP since 2016:

NJ-09 ➡️ +24.7%
TX-28 ➡️ +26.4%
TX-34 ➡️ +40.7%
CA-09 ➡️ +14.9%
CA-13 ➡️ +18.1%
CA-21 ➡️ +18.0%
CA-25 ➡️ +14.9%
FL-09 ➡️ +22.9%

And GOP vote share among Latinos has gone from 29% in 2018 to 43% in 2024.

“Hispanic communities are sick and tired of radical Democrats turning their backs on them time and again. They are forcefully rejecting the far-left agenda that resulted in years of open borders, skyrocketing prices, and woke insanity like men in girls’ sports. Republicans are the party of common sense, and Hispanic voters know it.” – NRCC Spokesman Christian Martinez

Republicans’ big bet on Latino candidates
Punchbowl News
Max Cohen, Ally Mutnick

Republicans are leaning into a simple strategy to win over the crucial bloc of Latino voters: recruit them as candidates.

[…]

Now, GOP leaders are making a concerted effort to field Latino candidates in these districts to help turn these pro-Trump voters into loyal Republicans. Some of these seats, such as New Jersey’s 9th District, represented by Rep. Nellie Pou (D), and California’s 25th District, represented by Rep. Raul Ruiz (D), haven’t been seriously contested in recent years but are now freshly competitive.

[…]

New Jersey’s 9th District: Pou’s seat shifted 20 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +1 district. Clifton City Councilmember Rosie Pino is running for this northern New Jersey seat that no one thought was in play last year.

California’s 25th District: Ruiz’s seat shifted 12 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a district Kamala Harris won by just three points. Republicans are excited about Joe Males, a Hemet city councilmember, who outraised Ruiz last quarter.

California’s 21st District: Rep. Jim Costa’s (D) district moved 16 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Harris +4 district. Republicans are coalescing behind Lorenzo Rios, a U.S. Marine and Army veteran, in this seat.

[…]

California’s 9th District: Rep. Josh Harder’s (D) seat shifted 15 points to the right from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +2 seat. Republicans are again fielding former Stockton, Calif., Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who lost to Harder last cycle. Lincoln’s mother is of Mexican descent.

California’s 13th District: Rep. Adam Gray’s (D) seat shifted 16 points to the right at the presidential level from 2020 to 2024 and is now a Trump +5 district. Ceres, Calif., Mayor Javier Lopez is running.

Texas’ 28th District: Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D) district shifted 14 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +7 district. The GOP may end up with a primary here but Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, a Democrat-turned-Republican, is one to watch.

Texas’ 34th District: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D). This seat shifted 20 points to the right since 2020 and is now a Trump +4 district. Eric Flores, an Army vet, is planning to run here.

[…]

“Republicans are the party of common sense, and Hispanic voters know it,” Christian Martinez, the NRCC’s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement.

[…]